The Comparatively Quiet Offseason of the Los Angeles Dodgers

We’re only halfway through, but thus far, the 2013-14 MLB offseason has hardly been bereft of excitement. Free agents have landed in unexpected places for dollar figures that would’ve seen obscene even five years ago. The Prince Fielder trade has made the baseball world question the meaning of the word, “untradeable.” Teams have entirely reshaped themselves, with some teams making marked improvement, and others seemingly regressing.

But in this outrageous year, one team has proven surprisingly restrained — the Los Angeles Dodgers. After the team was acquired by the Guggenheim Partners in 2012, it seemed there was no move they wouldn’t be able to make. Money was no object, with a wealthy ownership group and a television contract due to pay out nearly $300 million a year. They seemed willing to take on any cost to improve the team. In the famous Nick Punto deal, the Dodgers took on the GDP of a small island nation, trading for $150 million in sunk cost just to take on the $154 million contract of the player they really wanted. They gave extensions to players they didn’t really need. They added the best starting pitcher on the market and signed international players to record-setting contracts. Through their mere presence, they charted the course of the offseason.

This year, their role one the market has been greatly diminished. This isn’t to say they haven’t improved; in fact, they’ve added several useful pieces. But they have seemed uninterested in the major free agents — the Robinson Canos and Jacoby Ellsburys of the world. So why is it that a team that was so active a year ago is willing to take a backseat this offseason?

The answer is simple — they’ve already put the best (or at least most expensive) team on the field that money can buy. At first base, they have Adrian Gonzalez, and his previously-mentioned $154 million contract. At second, they have replace Mark Ellis with 27-year old Cuban expat Alexander Guerrero, signing him to a 4 year, $28 million deal. At short, they’ve got Hanley Ramirez, in the last year of a 6 year, $70 million deal. Ramirez is now 30 years old and has a history of injury, but when healthy, is as good offensively as any shortstop in the league — none of the available free agents would have been an improvement.

At third, the Dodgers had a hole, as the incumbent, Juan Uribe, was due to become a free agent. But after Uribe, the best options on the free agent market were the likes of Kelly Johnson and Kevin Youkilis; their best move was to re-sign the mercurial Uribe to a 2 year, $15.5 million deal.

And in the outfield, the Dodgers already have four players — Matt Kemp, Carl Crawford, Andre Ethier, and Yasiel Puig. Even with all the money in the world, the Dodgers cannot change the rules of baseball. They cannot play all the outfielders they currently have, much less sign another high-priced outfield target.

Where the team has holes, they’ve spent. They have added pieces to their bullpen, bringing in Chris Perez and Jamey Wright while re-signing Brian Wilson and J.P. Howell. They had room at the back end of their rotation, so they brought in Dan Haren on a low-risk, one-year deal. And who knows, they might still make a splash — they are rumored to be the leading candidate in the Masahiro Tanaka bidding, even if they claim to be disinterested. But keep in mind that this team won 92 last year and made the NLCS. There’s no need for the Dodgers to set the baseball world on fire — even if they can.

A Game of Numbers: #89-80

On Monday, we looked at the top players to wear the top numbers: 99-90. We continue our 10 day series with the best players who wore the numbers 89-80.

NOTE: We are NOT looking for the total career statistics of players, just their stats while wearing the number listed.

#89-80 (No player has ever worn the numbers 89,86, or 80).

#89 NONE

#88 Albert Belle, OF, DH (1999-2000)

While Belle didn’t necessarily live up to the huge contract that the O’s gave him in 1999, his two years while wearing 88 were good enough to make him the best player to have worn that number. Belle, who wore the number 8 while with the Indians and White Sox, had to change his number after signing with the O’s; 8 was already taken. In his two season wearing 88, Belle hit .289/.374/.509, while hitting 60 home runs and compiling a WAR of 4. While Belle doesn’t have the highest WAR of any player who wore 88 (Rene Gonzalez had a 4.4 WAR while wearing 88 over 9 seasons), Belle was able to have that WAR in just two seasons. If Belle’s degenerative hip osteoarthritis hadn’t forced him into early retirement, we might be talking about him as a Hall of Fame candidate.

#87 Dan Otero, RP (2012)

Otero wore the number 87 for a little while with the Giants in 2012, making him the first and, thus far, only player to have ever worn that number. Otero also wore 37 and 43 durning 2012, so he didn’t wear 87 all of 2012. He pitched in 12 games in 2012, posting a 5.84 ERA in 12.1 innings.

#86 NONE

#85 Lastings Milledge, OF (2009-2010)

Milledge wore 85 in part of two seasons with the Nationals and the Pirates. After wearing 44 for most of his career, Milledge made the switch in 2009 because Adam Dunn wanted that number after Dunn signed with the Nationals. Milledge chose 85 because it was his birth year. Milledge is the only player to wear 85 for more than one season, giving him the highest WAR for any player who wore that number. While he only played 65 games in 2009, Milledge was able to compile a .5 WAR and a .4 WAR in 2010.

#84 JT Snow. 1B/DH (2006)

While JT Snow is better known for playing on the Giants, where he wore number 8, Snow played one year with the Red Sox in 2006. He wore the number 84 to honor his deceased father, Jack, who wore the number as a wide receiver in the NFL. Snow’s tenure in Boston didn’t last long; after 38 games, he was released, ending his career. While Snow is the only player to have worn 84, next season, Prince Fielder will dawn that number for the Rangers, meaning JT Snow’s time at best player at number 84 is sure to end.

#83 Justin Turner, 3B, 2B, DH (2009)

As one of two players to wear 83, Turner wore this number as a September call-up when he was on the Baltimore Orioles. While Turner only played 12 games and had only 22 at bats, he was still good enough to have a .2 WAR. The only other player that has worn 83 was Eric Gange when he played with the Boston Red Sox at then end of his career. That season, Gange only pitched 18 innings, but gave up 14 runs.

#82 Johnny Lazor, OF (1943)

Not only does he have an awesome name, but Johnny Lazor is also the only player to have worn the number 82. Lazor only wore 82 one season with the Red Sox, 1943, where he hit .226 in 83 games. Lazor came up as a wartime replacement player, but managed four seasons in the bigs, with a career .263 batting average. In his best year, 1945, he hit .310 in 101 games, while wearing number 14. Lazor wore the highest number in Red Sox’ history until Snow donned the number 84.

#81 Eddie Guardado, RP (2006-2007)

While “Everyday” Eddie Guardado is better known for his time with the Twins, his two-year stint with the Reds puts him on this list. For most of his career, Guardado wore #18, however, Guardado flipped his number when he joined the Reds. Guardado didn’t play much in Cincinnati, as injuries and ineffectiveness limited him to 30 games over those two seasons. Even though Guardado’s time in Cinci wasn’t stellar, he still tops this list as the top player to have worn 81, besting the unmemorable Ben Diggins and Lou Lucier, who wore the number for one season each.

#80 NONE

A Game of Numbers: #99-90

The 1916 Cleveland Indians donning the first numbered jerseys.

Ever since the 1930’s, baseball players have worn numbers on their backs. It all started with the 1916 Cleveland Indians, who got the idea from hockey and football. On June 26, 1916, in a game against Shoeless Joe Jackson and the Chicago White Sox, the Indians came out of their dugout, with number patches adorning their left arms. The Indians only wore these patches for a few weeks that season, and a little bit in the 1917 season, before retiring them forever. Then, in 1923, the St. Louis Cardinals took the suggestion of sportswriter John Sheridon and also wore numbers on their sleeves. This didn’t last long, as the players were ridiculed by fans, sportswriters, and players alike. In 1929, the then World Series champions New York Yankees, along with the Cleveland Indians, decided that they were going to try numbers again, but this time on the back of their jerseys. This tradition, initially laughed off, became an integral part of major league baseball. In the upcoming weeks, we look back at the best players to wear each number.

NOTE: We are NOT looking for the total career statistics of players, just their stats while wearing the number listed.

#99-#90 (NOTE: No player has ever worn the numbers 93, 92, and 90)

#99 Manny Ramirez, LF, DH (2008-2010)

After getting traded from the Boston Red Sox in July of 2008, Manny Ramirez wanted a fresh start with the Dodgers. That included a number change. He decided to be the first player in Dodgers history to wear the number 99. While wearing that number, Ramirez accumulated a WAR of 6.5, while hitting 45 home runs in just two and a half seasons with the Dodgers and White Sox. Those seasons, however, were cut short by injury and suspension. I guess thats Manny being Manny.

#98 Onelki Garcia, RP (2013)

Like many of the high-numbered players on this list, Garcia wore his number as a September call up. He only had three appearances this September, giving up 2 runs in an inning and a third of relief work. While Garcia’s tenure while wearing the number 98 wasn’t good, he is, in fact, the only play to have ever worn that number.

#97 Joe Beimel, RP (2005-2011)

Throughout the majority of his entire career, Joe Beimel wore the number 97 because it was the year that his first born child was born in. He is also the only person to have worn the number 97. While wearing 97, Beimel had a 5.8 WAR in 7 seasons with the Devil Rays, Dodgers, Nationals, Rockies and Pirates. His best season was 2008 with the Dodgers, when he had a 2.02 ERA in 71 appearances.

#96 Bill Voiselle, SP (1947-1950)

Bill Voiselle’s fame isn’t because of his performance on the field, but for the number that he wore. In the last four years of his career, Voiselle wanted to honor his hometown, Ninety Six, South Carolina. After he was traded to the Boston Braves, he changed his uniform number from 30, to 96. To this day, he is the only player to have worn his hometown as a uniform number. While wearing 96, Voiselle had a 3.6 WAR, with his best year being ’48, where he had an ERA of 3.63 in 37 games pitched.

#95 Takahito Nomura, RP (2002)

Just like Onelki Garcia, Nomura is only on this list because he is he only player to have ever worn the 95. While Nomura did well in he Japan, his transfer to the major leagues did not go smoothly. Nomura only lasted one season in the MLB, posting and 8.68 ERA in 13.2 innings, and compiling a -.7 WAR. After his major league career didn’t work out, Nomura went back to Japan to finish his career.

#94 Felix Heredia RP, (2001)

While Heredia pitched many seasons wearing many different numbers, in 2001, Heredia became the first player to wear the number 94. However, his season in which he wore 94 wasn’t a good one. Heredia posted a 6.17 ERA and a 68 ERA+. The only other player to have worn 94 is Jose Mesa, who wore the number with the Detroit Tigers in 2004. Mesa actually just as bad of a season with the Tigers, making either choice equally bad.

#93 NONE

#92 NONE

#91 Alfredo Aceves (2008-2013)

While Aceves is better known for his hot tempure, and his failed years with the Red Sox, he is the best player to have worn 91, beating Hideo Nomo’s 2008 season, and Tim Spooneybarger. In a 2009 interview, Aceves told reporters that he wore the number 91 to honor his hero, Chicago Bulls Foward Dennis Rodman, who also wore the number 91. After pitching well for the Yankees over the course of three seasons, Aceves was signed by the Red Sox in 2010. Aceves’ first year with the Red Sox was very good, posting 2.7 WAR and a 2.61 ERA in 48 appearances. The Red Sox were hoping that Aceves would be their set up man or even closer, but after two very bad season in 2012 and 2013, the Red Sox parted ways with Aceves.

#90 NONE

The Battle for League Supremacy

Young talent could help end the AL’s reign of dominance

In 1901, Ban Johnson reconstituted his fledgling Western League and declared it a major league, much to the consternation of the established National League. Johnson and his league, now called the American League, pilfered talent from the NL, using the promise of higher salaries to lure Cy Young, Nap Lajoie, and Wee Willie Keeler from their teams. Finally, the NL, weakened by the fight, compromised with Johnson. Under the National Agreement signed in 1903, the AL and NL would continue to operate as two distinct, major leagues. The two pennant winners would meet at the end of their respective seasons for a postseason series to determine which league was truly superior — thus, the World Series was born.

Since the American League’s inception, the two leagues have fought to determine which was superior. But in the last decade, the pendulum has shifted towards the so-called senior circuit. The AL had won 11 straight all-star games from 1997 to 2009, and although they lost three in a row from 2010 to 2012, they recovered to win in 2013 (though obviously, one game says very little about the talent of an entire league). More indicatively, the AL has finished with a winning record in interleague play every year since 2004, including a 164-146 advantage in 2013. It’s been rough going in recent times for the National League.

And as anyone who has been paying attention to the free agent market has noticed, the AL’s dominance has extended to the Hot Stove League. This, from Yahoo! Sports’ Jeff Passan:

So far this offseason, teams have guaranteed approximately $1.543 billion to free agents. AL teams account for $1.13B. NL teams at $409.18M.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 21, 2013

After I got over how much money both leagues had spent, I got to considering whether this was good news for the AL. My first thought? Of course. But then I began to ask myself; why is this the case? The answer — the AL is getting older. There is a shocking disparity between the amount of young talent in the NL and the relative lack of it in the AL. In the NL, position players 25 and younger received 24052 plate appearances, and accounted for 70.4 fWAR, roughly a quarter of the league’s total. But in the AL, players under 25 tallied only 17768 plate appearances, and accumulated only 43.9 fWAR — only 15% of the league’s total. On the pitching side, the disparity is almost equally as wide — 71.6 fWAR for NL youngsters against 53.5 fWAR for those of the AL.

And it seems many of the brightest young stars reside in the National League. The NL has Paul Goldschmidt, Andrelton Simmons, Yasiel Puig, Bryce Harper, Clayton Kershaw, Matt Harvey, and Jose Fernandez — all of whom are scarcely old enough to rent a car. The AL, of course, has Mike Trout, Manny Machado, and Chris Sale, all top-flight stars. But beyond those three, there is little else. Behind Trout, Machado, and Sale, the next-best sub-25 position player by fWAR is Salvador Perez, the next-best pitcher Jose Quintana — useful players, but not stars by any definition of the word.

With the relative lack of young stars in their systems, AL teams must chase the more established, more expensive older stars available in free agency. Thus, the AL might have a chance of retaining the last vestiges of their dominance in the near-future. But like in all things, change is inevitable in the world of baseball. And for the National League, the future is looking very bright.

Top 10 Nationals Moments of 2013 – Part 2

The Washington Nationals had a 2013 season in which they failed to live up to the lofty expectations of the previous campaign.  Despite this disappointment, 2013 was filled with moments that are well worth remembering.  Here now are the top 5 moments of the 2013 season (moments 6-10 are covered here).

5.  Jordan Zimmermann’s 91 pitch, one hit complete game — April 26th, Cincinnati Reds

One night after Gio Gonzalez one hit the Reds in an 8-1 victory, Jordan Zimmermann took the mound, hoping to match Gonzalez’s performance. Zimmermann came out strong, retiring the first three batters on only 7 pitches. Zimmermann continued to dominate in the next inning, striking out Jay Bruce on 3 pitchers and setting down the side on only 11 pitches. In the top of the third, Zimmermann gave up a single to former Nationals farmhand Xavier Paul.  However, it only took Zimmermann 9 more pitches to get out of the inning. After three, Zimmermann had faced 10 batters on 30 pitches. Zimmermann only got better after that. In the final six innings of the game, Zimmermann only allowed two more base runners, one reaching on an error, and the other reaching on a walk.  Zimmermann finished what he started, going the distance for the second time in his career, and his first complete game win. On a night where Zimmermann needed to be almost perfect (the Nats only scored one run) he was just that.

video here

4. Ian Desmond game winning grand slam – June 19th, Philadelphia Phillies

Even though they are no longer the juggernaut they were just two seasons ago, it still feels special when the Nats manage to pull a win from the Phillies. But even in that context, this one was special.  The Nationals were in danger of getting swept in Philly, and through 8 innings, it looked like that was going to happen. The Nationals were down 2-1 heading into the ninth, facing off against Phillies closer Jonathan Papelbon. With two outs and two on in the ninth, Jayson Werth came to the plate and knocked the first pitch he saw into left field, tying the game at 2.  Relievers Tyler Clippard, Ian Krol, and Drew Storen kept the game scoreless going into the 11th.  With one out in the 11th, the Nationals loaded the bases against Michael Stutes, and Ian Desmond walked to the plate.  Desmond, who had gone hitless to that point with three strikeouts, lifted a hanging Stutes slider high over the left field wall, handing what at that time seemed like a must-win game to the Nats.

video here

3.  Denard Span’s 29-game hit streak — August 17th to September 18th

On August 17th, Denard Span got 3 hits in at bats, playing all 15 innings in the Nationals’ marathon 8-7 win over the Braves.  It was a promising performance in what had been to that point a disappointing season — Span was hitting .260/.311/.354, all well below his career norms.  But Span was about to go through a stretch that would salvage his season.  Span made it a little more than halfway to DiMaggio, putting together a 29-game hit streak, over the course of which he had 46 hits, including 5 doubles, 2 triples and 2 home runs.  The 29-game streak was one short of Ryan Zimmerman’s Nationals-record 30-game hitting streak, a record he set in 2009.  More importantly, the Nationals went 22-9 over the course of Span’s hit streak, turning a disaster of a season into merely a disappointment.  The streak came to an end on September 19th, as Span went 0-4 against Henderson Alvarez and the Miami Marlins.  But through the streak, Span managed to remind the Nationals why they traded for him in the first place, solidifying the outfield coming into the 2014 season.

video here

2. Doubleheader sweep of the Braves – September 17th, Atlanta Braves

On the morning of September 17, the Nationals sat at 79-70, 5 games back of a wild card spot — just close enough to dream of the postseason.  After the Navy Yard shootings had postponed the first game of a three game set with the division rival Braves, the team had to play two must-win games on one day.  In game 1, the Nationals took an early 3-0 lead, but saw it slowly evaporate until an 8th inning Evan Gattis home run made it 4-3 Braves.  The Braves added one more in the top of the ninth, and turned to near-unhittable closer Craig Kimbrel, who to that point in his career had never given up 3 runs in an outing.  But this inning became one of the more improbable in Nationals history.  After walking the leadoff man, Kimbrel got a ground ball up the middle off the bat of Wilson Ramos.  But second baseman Elliot Johnson made a poor flip to second, and Ramos (the slowest player on the team) was credited with an infield single.  Kimbrel then walked Anthony Rendon, and after a Chad Tracy RBI groundout, the score was 5-4, and the Nationals had runners at second and third.  Denard Span stepped to the plate, needing only contact to tie the game.  He rolled a soft grounder to shortstop Andrelton Simmons, who according to advanced defensive metrics, was in the midst of the greatest defensive season in baseball history.  But on this improbable day, Simmons let an easy chance go through his legs, two runs scored, and somehow, the Nationals had won game one.

video here

In game two, the team rode seven shutout innings from Tanner Roark, in just his third major league start, to a 4-0 victory.  It wasn’t to be, but after this day, a Nationals fan could dream that 2013 would end in something other than disappointment.

1. Bryce Harper two home run opening day – April 1st, Miami Marlins

Nothing embodied a season filled with much hope and potential more than Bryce Harper’s opening day debut. On the first swing of the 20 year old phenom’s season, Harper hit a Ricky Nolasco change up over the scoreboard in right center field. The capacity crowd was delirious, waving their 2012 postseason rally towels in the air — an immersive sea of red.

Harper came to bat again in the fourth inning, facing off against Nolasco once again. When he connected on another Nolasco offspeed pitch, sending it over the right field wall once again, he somehow managed to raise the crowd’s already sky-high expectations. The team was already projected by most to make a World Series appearance, but on this day, anything seemed possible.

Top 10 Nationals Moments of 2013 – Part 1

The Washington Nationals had a 2013 season in which they failed to live up to the lofty expectations of the previous campaign. Despite this disappointment, 2013 was filled with moments that are well worth remembering. Here now are the top 10 moments of the 2013 season, starting with moments 6-10.

Honorable Mentions:

Wilson Ramos’s 5-RBI Return — July 4th, Milwaukee Brewers (video)

Adam LaRoche’s 15th Inning Home Run — August 17th, Atlanta Braves (video)

Davey Johnson’s retirement ceremony — September 22nd, Miami Marlins (video)

10. Denard Span’s game-saving catch — August 14th, San Francisco Giants

After a disappointing July, the Nationals were looking to get their season back on track in August. They had won four straight, and were looking to draw within one game of the .500 mark. They took a 6-1 lead into the 8th inning, but Ian Krol and Ryan Mattheus had given back three of those runs in the eighth. So Davey Johnson again summoned Rafael Soriano to close the game, and Soriano, as he seemed to have a habit of doing, made it interesting. With two outs in the inning, Soriano gave up an RBI single to Brandon Belt, trimming the lead to one. Another single put two on for Hunter Pence, and Pence lined a Soriano cutter high and deep to straightaway center field. All appeared lost. And indeed, all might’ve been lost, had anyone but Denard Span been roaming center field for the Nats. Span ranged back on the dead run, dove to his right, and somehow, against all odds, came up with the ball. In an instant, sure defeat had transformed into exhilarating victory.

9. Gio Gonzalez’s near no-no — September 9th, New York Mets

On a night where one DC team struggled, another team thrived. Gio Gonzalez faced a Mets lineup that featured Andrew Brown as their three hitter. Gonzalez did what one would expect with a lineup like that and completely dominated them. Through six innings, Gio had allowed only a Daniel Murphy first-inning walk, striking out 7 Mets in the process. In the bottom of the 7th, infielder Zach Lutz was the leadoff hitter for the Mets. Lutz poked a Gonzalez fastball just down the first base line. Replays were inconclusive, but first base umpire John Hirschbeck called it a fair ball — the Mets’ first base hit. The no-hitter was over.

[edit: an earlier version of this piece stated that Gonzalez carried a perfect game into the seventh.  This was not the case, and the mistake has been corrected.]

Gonzalez went on to pitch his lone complete game of the 2013 season, striking out 8 on 110 pitches. While it wasn’t the first no-hitter in Nationals’ history, it was still one of the team’s best-pitched games — truly a fine performance from Gonzalez.

video here

8. Bryce Harper homers in return — July 1st, Milwaukee Brewers

After starting off his season in torrid fashion, Bryce Harper suffered numerous injuries due to several wall collisions, causing him to spend the entire month of June on the DL. The loss of his presence in the lineup caused the Nationals offense to stall. They desperately needed Bryce Harper back. After playing several rehab games with the Nationals minor league affiliates, Harper and the Nationals set a return date for July 1st at home against the Brewers. The night finally came, and after Denard Span and Jayson Werth got out, it was time for Bryce Harper to make his return at the plate. After taking ball one outside, Harper crushed a Yovanni Gallardo curveball into the visitors bullpen. The 25000 fans in the crowd were on their feet, cheering for Harper to come out for a curtain call. Bryce Harper’s return gave the Nationals something that they hadn’t had since April — hope.

video here

7. Bryce Harper’s walkoff home run — July 25th, Pittsburgh Pirates

Coming out of the all-star break, the Nationals had lost six straight games, dropping to 48-53, and had seen their deficit in the East balloon to 9 games. Having dropped the first three games of a four game set against the Pirates, they needed to win one to avoid starting an 11-game homestand 0-7. The team scored four runs in the first, then watched their lead cut to one by the eighth. In the bottom of the eighth, the Nationals once again widened their lead to four on an Adam LaRoche RBI triple. Randy Knorr, replacing an injured Johnson, sent out Rafael Soriano to close out the game, but Soriano struggled to put the game away, and Knorr replaced him with the young Ian Krol. But Krol, who entered with a two-run lead and runners at the corners, proceeded to give up that lead, and the Nationals went into the bottom of the ninth tied at 7. With two outs and Roger Bernadina on first, Bryce Harper came to the plate. He gashed a Bryan Morris fastball to deep center field, over the wall and into the Red Porch. Harper’s first career walkoff home run saved the Nationals from heartbreak, giving them a much-needed win.

video here

6. Stephen Strasburg’s first career complete game — August 11th, Philadelphia Phillies

Throughout his career, the biggest knock on Stephen Strasburg has been his seeming inability to go deep into games. Due to a variety of factors — pitch counts, innings limits, and Strasburg’s own struggles with pitch efficiency, Strasburg had never even pitched into the eighth inning entering the 2013 campaign. In 2013, he started to improve, managing 8 innings 3 times. But on the 11th of August, Strasburg, if for just one day, managed to silence all his doubters. In a masterful performance, Strasburg managed to be both effective and efficient. He threw 99 pitches, 66 of them strikes. His fastball sizzled, curveball buckled, and changeup darted. He baffled Phillies’ hitters, striking out 10 of them, including Darin Ruf thrice. In the 9th, with a 6-0 lead, Davey Johnson decided to send Strasburg back out to complete the game, earning raucous applause from the crowd. Strasburg got the first two hitters quickly, but fell behind Kevin Frandsen 2-0. Frandsen then lined a ball down the third base line, but Ryan Zimmerman, like so many other times in his career, was there to snare it. Strasburg had his first career complete game, and it was a shutout.

video here

Look for Part 2 of the series, in which reveal moments 1-5 of 2013, tomorrow.

Contemplating Extensions for Desmond and Zimmermann

The Washington Nationals are at an impasse. After the 2015 season, they are in danger of losing two of the biggest pieces of their recent run of success — Ian Desmond and Jordan Zimmermann. Over the last two years, Desmond has been the Nationals’ most-valuable position player by fWAR, Zimmermann the most-valuable pitcher. Both are entering their age-28 seasons, and could be due contracts that reach or exceed $100 million. So the Nationals have a decision to make; do they extend one or both, or can they afford to walk away?

Desmond, over the past two years, has developed into a top-flight offensive player at a position that has seen very few develop in recent years. Since the heyday of offensive shortstops midway through the last decade, the position’s offensive production relative to the league has diminished significantly; in 2007, shortstops slugged .402, 35 points better than they did in 2013. The relative paucity of offensive shortstops makes Desmond’s performance stand out even more; since his breakout in 2012, Desmond is tops in the majors in home runs by a shortstop, and ranks among the league leaders in slugging percentage, wOBA, and wRC+. Additionally, Desmond runs the bases well (a team-high 42 stolen bases in the two years), and according to UZR, is well above-average defensively (DRS, however, is much less impressed). All this, plus Desmond’s durability (he missed just 4 games last year) makes Desmond among the most-valuable players in baseball; his 10.0 fWAR from 2012 to 2013 was not only the highest by a shortstop, it was the 13th highest by any position player.

Moreover, the Nationals, who will presumably look to contend after 2015, lack any sort of replacement for Desmond in the near future. Of the top-20 prospects in the Nationals system (as rated by MLB.com), only one is a shortstop — Zach Walters. But Walters, despite impressive power numbers, is nobody’s definition of a suitable replacement for Desmond’s production — he had a .286 OBP last year at AAA, and made a league-high 31 errors. And the lack of replacements for Desmond extends to the free agent market — with the possible exception of Hanley Ramirez, few all-star caliber shortstops are due to hit free agency in the next two years, and none better than Desmond. It seems unlikely that the Nationals will find anything better than Desmond. Barring the unforeseen, extending him seems like the most sensible course of action, regardless of cost.

Jordan Zimmermann is a different story. It isn’t that Zimmermann is without value. He has been one of the most consistent starters in the major leagues — over the last three years, only ten pitchers have a better ERA than Zimmermann’s 3.12. He’s coming off his first 200 inning season, first all-star selection, and first season receiving Cy Young votes. Zimmermann has been an integral part of the Nationals’ rise from the basement. But with the Nationals having to free up payroll to retain Stephen Strasburg and eventually, Bryce Harper, the team has some tough decisions to make. And as hard as it will be, Zimmermann can be replaced. In fact, the Nationals might have an internal replacement for Zimmermann in the form of highly-touted prospect Lucas Giolito. Giolito, with a fastball that can reach triple digits and a very sharp curveball, has drawn favorable comparisons to Pirates starter Gerrit Cole and, of course, Strasburg. And by 2016, Giolito will be 21 — the same age as Strasburg was when he made his major league debut.

And even if the Nationals feel uncomfortable giving a spot in the rotation to an unproven prospect, they have many options on the free agent market. In the next offseason, James Shields, Max Scherzer, and Clayton Kershaw are due for free agency. While the Dodgers seem highly unlikely to let Kershaw slip away, the Nationals will still have several viable options they can choose from if they decide to replace Zimmermann via free agency. If they sign Shields or Scherzer, they could trade Zimmermann away for a solid return, a year before he was due to leave without the team receiving compensation.

Both Jordan Zimmermann and Ian Desmond have made invaluable contributions towards turning an 100-loss team into a bona fide contender. But it seems the Nationals could create a viable contingency plan if they lose Zimmermann; losing Desmond would leave a hole that would be much harder to fill.

Trouble for the NPB

Japan is in danger of losing yet another of its baseball stars

Throughout the offseason, Major League Baseball and Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball have been busy negotiating a new agreement that would affect how Japanese players migrate to America.  Under the old system, a Japanese team would “post” a player — put him on the market — and a four-day silent auction would be held between the 30 major league teams.   Then, the team that placed the highest bid would earn the right to negotiate exclusively with the posted player.  The winning bid would be payed as a lump sum directly to the team, with the player seeing none of that money.  The posted player would have two choices — to negotiate a contract with the winning bidder, or head back to Japan, hat in hand.  The system severely limited the potential earnings of the player, but provided a financial windfall for NPB teams; the winning bid for Yu Darvish, posted by the NPB’s Nippon-Ham Fighters in the 2011 offseason, was a record $51.7 million.  To put that in perspective, the payroll for the entire Fighters team in 2011 was only 2,644.4 million Yen, or approximately 25.3 million USD.

The new agreement, announced officially three days ago, makes the process far less lucrative for the NPB.  Here are the new rules:

MLB has agreed to terms with NPB on revised protocols for the posting system. Details: pic.twitter.com/tqcDXlumXe

— MLB Communications (@MLB_PR) December 16, 2013

The most impactful change?  While MLB teams will still bid on posted players, the bidding will be capped at $20 million.  While $20 million isn’t nothing,  it’s a far cry from the $51.7 million received for Darvish, and more importantly, it puts a cap on the posting fee at a time when the fee seemed likely to rise exponentially.  Additionally, if a player has multiple bids at the $20 million threshold, he is allowed to negotiate with any of the teams who placed the $20 million bid.  No longer is this an exclusive negotiation — it is now something more akin to free agency.

All of this brings us to Masahiro Tanaka.  Tanaka, the 25-year old ace of the Rakuten Golden Eagles, had himself a season for the ages in 2013.  He went 24-0 in the regular season, breaking a record for most consecutive wins in professional baseball that had been held by Carl Hubbell for 76 years.  His ERA seems like a typographical error — 1.27.  And he almost singlehandedly led his team to victory in the Japan Series, the World Series of Japanese baseball.  Tanaka has a great deal of interest in jumping to the MLB, and in fact asked the Golden Eagles to post him this offseason.  But the Eagles have been weighing the decision to post Tanaka in light of the new agreement, and today, we heard this:

Tanaka will not be posted according to several reports out of Japan, per @nytimes.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 19, 2013

And why should they?  The maximum the team could receive from posting Tanaka is $20 million.  But Tanaka is a star — not only in pitching prowess, but in marketability.  He is likely worth more than $20 million to the Eagles, who are planning on offering him a record salary (of around $8 million) to have him stay in Japan.  The deal removes much of the financial incentive for Japanese teams to post marquee players such as Tanaka.  But there’s further reason for NPB teams to dislike the new agreement.  From Peter Gammons:

Japanese Pitcher Tanaka Won’t Be Let Go, Reports Say If Mr. Mikitani posted, it would be concession that Japan is a minor league for MLB

— Peter Gammons (@pgammo) December 19, 2013

The new agreement is great for NPB players who are looking for better financial compensation stateside.  But the lowered posting fee, which as compared to the previous arrangement looks like a mere pittance, changes the nature of the relationship between the MLB and NPB.  Unless NPB teams can hold on to their biggest and brightest stars, the NPB will become little more than a training ground for the MLB — a minor league.

The White Sox’ Unique Rebuilding Strategy

Behind Jose Dariel Abreu, the White Sox want to build for both short and long term.

In 2012, the Chicago White Sox were a good team. They won 85 games, led their division for 104 days, and were in first as late as September 24th before being usurped by the Tigers.

In 2013, the Chicago White Sox were not a good team. In fact, they were a very bad team. A year after finishing just 3 games behind the Tigers for the division crown, they finished 30 games back, last in the AL Central. They lost 99 games, with an offense whose team .299 wOBA was 4th worst in the major leagues. Their former star, Paul Konerko, seemed like he had nothing left in the tank; he hit .244/.313/.355, and his horrid defense and baserunning made him (by fWAR) the worst player in the American League. But Konerko wasn’t alone — there wasn’t a single position player on the White Sox that wasn’t an unremitting disappointment. Adam Dunn, in the 3rd year of a 4 year, $56 million deal, hit .219 out of the DH spot. Gordon Beckham, once the 20th-ranked prospect in all of baseball, posted his fourth consecutive year with an OPS under .700. Dayan Viciedo, who the White Sox had signed out of Cuba to a great deal of fanfare, was barely a replacement player. The team’s catchers hit an abysmal .195. The team had little going for it, and worse yet, the farm system was ranked in the bottom 10 of the league, with few players ready to make immediate impact. For GM Rick Hahn and the White Sox, it became clear that it was time to break out the ‘R’ word, the word every fan loathes — rebuild.

And since the trade deadline in July, that’s what the White Sox have done. They have traded away the few remaining pieces of value they have (save Chris Sale, who is as close to untouchable as they come) for players that might help in the future. Jake Peavy, Alex Rios, Hector Santiago, Addison Reed — all players with varying degrees of value, all traded away; Peavy to the Red Sox, Rios to the Rangers, Santiago to the Angels by way of the Diamondbacks, and Reed to the Diamondbacks outright.

But this is no typical rebuilding effort. The White Sox have not done as so many teams before them have done, targeting players with immense potential who are years away from the big leagues. Instead, they have tried to acquire big-league talent that will allow them to rapidly rebuild their team around a new, young core. In the Peavy deal, the White Sox received Avisail Garcia, a 22-year old corner outfielder who was ready to jump right into their lineup, and in fact, did, hitting .304 in 42 games. For Rios, they received Leury Garcia, another 22-year old who can play multiple positions and had already seen big league action. For Santiago, they got Adam Eaton, a 25-year old with a rocket arm who was projected to be the Diamondbacks opening day center fielder before an arm injury derailed his season. And for Reed, a two-year closer with a career ERA over 4, they got third baseman Matt Davidson, a 22-year old former first round pick with a career .803 minor league OPS who made it all the way to the big leagues this year.

But all these surprising moves pale in comparison to the stunner the White Sox pulled in late October, when they signed first baseman and Cuban expat Jose Dariel Abreu to an 6 year, $68 million deal. Abreu, at age 27, is in the prime of his baseball career, ready to produce now, and rebuilding teams almost by rule avoid giving out contracts of this size; this deal was the largest ever given to an international free agent. But this fits right in with the White Sox offseason strategy — to acquire major league-ready talent that has the capability to become the nucleus of a winning team sooner rather than later.

For most teams, rebuilding is a painstakingly slow process, and it often takes years for that process to produce results at the major league level. The White Sox are rebuilding, but they have chosen a different tact. They have decided to almost entirely bypass the minor leagues, opting to let a new young core develop right in the South Side of Chicago. It remains to be seen whether this strategy will ultimately be successful. But Rick Hahn is attempting to prove, and White Sox fans are hoping, that there is more than just one way to rebuild a franchise.

Dreaming of a Royal Postseason

After years of disappointment, the Royals finally have a team worth believing in.

Though the plight of Pirates fans has been far better-documented, fans of the Kansas City Royals have endured pain and suffering that rivals that of Pittsburgh.  Their World Series victory in 1985 was followed a decade of mediocrity; from 1986 to 1993, they failed to make the playoffs, with win totals ranging from 72 to 92.  Then, following the strike, the team slipped from mediocrity to utter ignominy.  The team’s power structure shifted, as General Manager John Scheurholz departed for Atlanta and beloved long-time owner Ewing Kauffman passed away.  The new ownership, headed by Wal-Mart executive David Glass, was seemed less willing to hold on to young talent as it got expensive, and thus, the Royals went from perennial contenders to constant cellar-dwellers.  In fact, from 1995 to 2012, the team finished out of 4th or 5th place just 4 times, and posted just one winning season (in 2003, when their pythagorean record indicated the talent of a 78-win team).

In 2006, the Royals brought on a new GM, a disciple of Schuerholz in Atlanta and lifelong Royals fan Dayton Moore.  Moore, a scout who had worked his way through the Braves organization, announced that he had a plan to rebuild the organization through scouting, trades, and smart free agent signings — a plan he called “The Process.”  But The Process stalled; Moore’s farm system failed to produce major league talent, and his biggest free agent signing, a 5 year, $55 million deal for starter Gil Meche, was ridiculed both at the time and in retrospect, as arm problems forced Meche into retirement at 31.  At the end of his first half-decade at the helm, it seemed Moore had made little progress towards restoring the Royals to their former glory.

But while Moore continued to struggle with major league personnel decisions (see the 2 year, $13.5 million extension for Jeff Franceour, worth -3.8 bWAR over the life of the contract), the farm system began to pay dividends.  After a rocky start to his major league career, Alex Gordon became the all-star befitting his first-round pedigree.  Homegrown talent such as Salvador Perez, Billy Butler, and Eric Hosmer blossomed into bona fide major league players.  And in the offseason before the 2013 season, Moore finally decided to cash in some of the talent in the farm system for a chance to win now.  In a move that looked controversial then and now, he traded mega-prospect Wil Myers, along with top-100 pitching prospect Jake Odorizzi, to the Rays for two years of proven starter James Shields.

While the deal has been widely panned from the Royals perspective (especially after 2013, when Myers lived up to his top-prospect billing and won AL Rookie of the Year), there is little doubt that the acquisition of Shields made them a better team in the short-term.  Shields was far and away the best pitcher in the KC staff, leading the team’s starters in innings pitched, strikeouts, ERA, FIP, and fWAR.  As a result (and due to the bounceback season from Ervin Santana, a cunning Moore acquisition), the Royals’ team ERA dropped over a run from 2012 to 2013 (5.01 and 3.87 respectively).  Additionally, Moore had assembled a bullpen that put up the best ERA in the American League, anchored by closer Greg Holland, who racked up a Royals record 47 saves.  The offense regressed some (Mike Moustakas and Alcides Escobar were especially disappointing), but the remarkable pitching turnaround was enough to improve the Royals’ record by 13 games, as they posted an 86-76 record, their best since 1989, and stayed until the playoff hunt until the last week of the season.  But can the Royals repeat their success in 2014, and maybe bring postseason baseball back to the barbecue capitol of the world?

Well, the initial results look promising.  The team recorded 86 wins, and their run differential indicates a team with 87-win talent.  In a world with two wild cards, where 90 wins is generally enough for a playoff spot, the Royals have but a small hill to climb.  One area that seemed in dire need of improvement was at second base; Royals’ second basemen put up a 64 wRC+ last year, worst in the American League.  The Royals addressed this need in a big way through the signing of Omar Infante.  The 32-year old Infante, who got a 4 year, $30 million deal, is by no means a star.  But he fills the biggest hole in the Royals’ infield; he plays solid defense, and his 117 wRC+ last year was the best of his career and 5th-best in baseball (min. 450 PAs).  Additionally, the Royals can look for improvement on the left side of their infield; Escobar’s career OPS+ before this year was 80 (as opposed to the putrid 53 OPS+ he posted this year), and Moustakas, despite lackluster career major league numbers, is just 25 and thus has the potential to improve (his career minor league OPS was a very solid .840).

On the other side of the ball, the Royals may be primed for a little regression.  There is no chance they re-sign Santana; they have already replaced him by giving Jason Vargas a 4 year, $32 million deal.  But Santana posted 3.0 fWAR last year, better than Vargas’ career high — in fact, over the last 3 years, Vargas has averaged only 1.5 fWAR.  Additionally, the bullpen seems likely to regress, as their 81.4% strand rate was tops in the American League, often denoting a lucky season.  But the Royals, who haven’t developed a true major league starter since Zack Greinke, seem to have some reinforcements coming from the farm.  Yordano Ventura, who can hit 102 on his fastball, struck out 11.5 per 9 in AAA last year, and made a solid major league debut.  And Shields sitting at the top of the rotation, as he will for one more year before heading to free agency, gives the team much needed stability in the form of a true ace, the kind they have lacked since Greinke’s 2009 season.

The Royals have suffered through decades of mismanagement and futility.  But they finally have a chance to put it all behind them, and give the city of Kansas City the winner they have sorely lacked but so desperately deserve.