Ryan Zimmerman, a Yankee Century, and 17 Years of the Washington Nationals

The picture above is of me, my parents, and my brother on September 5th, 2005. I’m the kid on the right in the red Curly W cap. The photo’s not the highest resolution, but the eagle-eyed among you might be able to look at it and tell that the Nationals third baseman standing over my dad’s shoulder on the left, playing in for the bunt, is *not* Ryan Zimmerman. In fact, it’s Vinny Castilla. Ryan Zimmerman didn’t start this game. He subbed in for Castilla, coming in in the seventh inning for defense. His leadoff single in the bottom of the eighth started a four run rally in which he was driven in by, of all people, Livan Hernandez. The game was his third of 1799 career; the hit was his second of 1846; the run scored was his first of 963. This was the first time I got to see Ryan Zimmerman play baseball; I was 11 years old.

Baseball is unique among American sports in how obsessed it is with its own history. You don’t necessarily have to engage with the history to enjoy the sport, but there’s definitely a greater expectation that you do in order to be considered a true fan than with, say, football. When I was eight years old and just getting into baseball, my parents bought me a book called Yankees Century by Glenn Stout. Published in 2002, the book covers 98 season of Yankees baseball, from 1903 to 2000. It’s 480 pages long. I haven’t read the book in almost 20 years, but I recall it being as comprehensive as a book can be while covering 98 seasons of baseball in 480 pages.

The Nationals don’t have the long and illustrious history of the New York Yankees. The Yankees play in the largest city in the country and have been a fixture of the sport of baseball and the fabric of popular culture for almost as long as either of those things have existed. The Nats are a transplant team, taken from a city who (despite recent revisionist history) didn’t seem to care much for them and moved to a city who’d already lost two teams and endured long stretches of bad baseball followed by 34 years without it. They’ve played 17 seasons in DC; the Yankees have played 27 seasons that have ended in a title.

But for someone like me, that lack of a lengthy history is kind of a blessing. The Nats are the only team for whom a person my age could reasonably say they’ve witnessed the team’s whole history first-hand. I didn’t have to read about the Nats’ first game in some 480-page tome; I got to watch it on TV. I witnessed, either on TV or in person, their first playoff appearance, their no-hitters, their historic individual seasons and performances, and their World Series victory. The benefit of having a brand new team move to town when you’re just coming of baseball age is getting to experience their entire lore being written.

And lore isn’t written just in those big moments; it’s also in the little ones, the moments that become shibboleths between longtime fans, the ones that get omitted from books like Yankees Century. The random players who shuffle in and out of town, the exciting games that fade from memory in lost seasons, the endless squabbles and meaningless debates that break out between fans during 162 game seasons.

Ryan Zimmerman has played 16 seasons as a Washington National, spanning his entire career. As a player, Zimmerman had an impressive career destined in a pure numerical sense for the Hall of Very Good. His career batting slash is .277/.341/.475, with his 284 career home runs tying him for 175th all time with Will Clark and Eric Karros. At the beginning of his career, Zimmerman was a terrific defender at third base, a true dual threat superstar who didn’t get national attention only because the team he played on was terrible. Injuries robbed him of his ability to throw the ball across the diamond, leading to two years of praying and hoping on every ground ball to third, followed by a move to first base. Except for an insanely hot three month stretch in the first half of 2017, Zimmerman’s time as a real star in the league was over by age 25, and his time as a reliable everyday player was sapped by constant injuries by age 28. Despite this, he hung around for nine more years, shifting positions and then finally accepting a new role as a bench player, staying reasonably productive when healthy (his OPS+ from 2014-2021 was 106). He’s a two time all star, two time silver slugger, and one time gold glover. His career Baseball Reference WAR is 40.1, tied for 531st all time with a pair of Daves, Parker and Concepcion.

A player playing his whole career for one team is a rarity nowadays, but it isn’t necessarily unique. In fact, Zimmerman isn’t the longest-tenured single franchise player still active in baseball; both Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright of the Cardinals have him beat by a year. I remember being in middle school and going out to the softball field behind my middle school with my brother and trying to master Zimmerman’s then-trademark barehand pickup to sidearm throw. Both my brother and I are in our mid-20s now. But while those memories are special to me and the thousands of DC-area kids my age who probably have memories just like mine, I’m sure St. Louisans my age have similar stories about trying to emulate Molina, like Minneapolitans with Joe Mauer or slightly older Denverites with Todd Helton.

What makes Zimmerman unique is that he came to a team just as that team came into existence, and by virtue of circumstance, longevity, and a willingness to stick around, came to define Nationals baseball in its entirety. He was the team’s first draft pick. He made his debut in their inaugural year. He was the first real star, hit the team’s first walkoff home run, its first playoff home run, and eventually, its first World Series home run. He leads the Nationals in essentially every major category, from the positive (hits, home runs, RBIs, runs), to the negatives (strikeouts, errors), to the ones you accrue simply by showing up (games played). Except for the fake pandemic season, Zimmerman’s played in every season in Nats history. He’s been teammates with 99% of the players who’ve ever donned the uniform.

Quick digression: a couple of years ago I started compiling a spreadsheet of every RBI in Zimmerman’s career, sorted by the player he drove in. I did it to commemorate his approaching 1,000 career RBIs, and it functions as both a source of fun trivia — he’s driven in Juan Soto the same number of times as he drove in Ronnie Belliard — and a time capsule to remember basically every player who’s ever come through DC. The list of players Zimmerman drove in exactly once features guys like George Lombard, Kevin Mench, and Jhonatan Solano, as well as two future big league managers in Aaron Boone and Alex Cora.

Zimmerman’s donned every uniform the Nats have ever worn, including being one of only two players to wear the infamous Natinals jersey. He’s been present in some form for nearly every moment, the great successes (he’s the only player who’s played in every Nats playoff series), the tragedies (the ends of most of those postseason series), and all the little ones that stick the memories of somebody, somewhere.

Zimmerman, who by all accounts is as introspective as baseball players get, seems to understand how unique the role he gets to play is, and he’s embraced it. In his postgame interview yesterday, he said of Nats fans: “We’ve lost lots of games together, we’ve won lots of games together, we were a brand new team and I was a 20-year old kid, so we’ve kind of grown up together. I have a unique relationship with these fans that not many people have with their fanbases, so I think that’s why it’s so special, for me and for them.” He allowed the fans to have their moment to salute him yesterday, and it served as a nice, if imperfect goodbye (I was hoping they’d let him take his position at third base before taking him out, and obviously it would have been better to see him go out on a win for a winning team). He says he hasn’t decided whether or not to come back next year; he can still play and Mike Rizzo has announced that he’ll be welcome back as long as he wants to keep playing. The end has to come for Zimmerman eventually, but it’s nice to see him go out on his own terms (if he in fact is going out) and, for once, after a season where he was on the active roster for all 162 games. But the idea of Nationals baseball in a post-Ryan Zimmerman era is hard to swallow. There wasn’t really Nationals baseball before Zimmerman. We don’t have a Yankee Century, but we might have something better in Zimmerman: a player linked to everything in a history we all got to see with our own eyes. Other players have been said to have defined their franchises, but for no player has that ever been more true than Mr. National.

On Jeter, Steroids, and Schilling

The 2020 Hall of Fame results came out today, which is exciting if you’re the type of fan who gets excited about that. I personally don’t care much, not because I think the Hall of Fame’s been discredited or some high-minded nonsense like that, but because these aren’t players I have a personal emotional connection to. Of the players eligible this year, only Adam Dunn and Alfonso Soriano ever played for the Nats, and while I’ve got lots of fond memories of both players I’m also aware that neither of them had any sort of Hall of Fame case (although I’m glad that they each got at least one vote). I’ll start feeling differently when Max Scherzer and the rest of the 2012-19 Nats start hitting the ballot and I’ll have someone I actually care about to push for. And yet, because I am a bottomless well of takes about things I don’t actually care about, I’ve got takes about today’s results.

Derek Jeter made the Hall of Fame, like everybody knew he would. Jeter came up just as all the New York sportswriters who had childhood memories of Mickey Mantle entered their writing primes. These sportswriters desperately wanted to believe that baseball was still capable of producing the mythic heroes of their youth — mythic heroes that were gods moreso than they were humans. Of course, the players of these sportswriters’ youth had this mythos form around them because of a press that kept their human foibles from public view, and these sportswriters largely gave Jeter that same treatment; Jeter never shared, the press didn’t ask. The result was a public image of Jeter as a legend on the field and a cipher off of it. And some of us got kind of tired of the myth-making surrounding this one player. For one thing, it reeked of nostalgia for an era that was itself a forgery. For another thing, Jeter, while excellent, wasn’t a player who deserved to be on the Mount Rushmore of baseball. His 119 career wRC+ ranks 279th all time (min. 5000 PA), between Hideki Matsui and Evan Longoria. His defense as a shortstop was subpar for large stretches of his career. These things don’t make him any less of a Hall of Famer; he’s comfortably there on merit, with his 3,465 hits, his .310 career lifetime average, and his 73.1 career fWAR. But the narrative around him always felt so trumped up, so artificial, and so New York-centric (Chipper Jones, statistically, had a better career than Jeter, but he played in Atlanta so there wasn’t a ton of outrage when 12 people didn’t vote for him) that all these calls for him to be unanimous — that he was such an inner-sanctum guy that no one could possibly make an argument against him — got to be insanely annoying. Thankfully, a hero emerged; one lonely person, as yet unnamed, voted against Derek Jeter for the Hall of Fame.

Larry Walker also got in, making it just over the 75% threshold in his 10th year on the ballot. There’s no statistical case against Walker — he had the peak, won an MVP, was very good for a long time, finished with more bWAR than Jeter. I personally didn’t really care about him when he was a player because he generally played for lousy and irrelevant teams, which is not his fault. I got a little irritated when Expos fetishists online took up Walker’s cause, and I always get a little annoyed when statistical consensus anoints a player and everyone determines that it would be a miscarriage of justice if that player didn’t make the Hall, but Walker certainly had the numbers and I’ve got no problem with him getting in.

Curt Schilling did not make it. Neither did Barry Bonds or Roger Clemens. You obviously know that none of these omissions had to do with statistics. I don’t know what I would do if I had the vote. I’ve never made up my mind one way or the other on whether steroid guys should be in the Hall. On the one hand, Bonds and Clemens are integral parts of the game of baseball and if the purpose of a Hall of Fame is to tell the story of baseball it’s gonna be incomplete without them in it. On the other hand, the result of their actions was one of the biggest legitimacy crises baseball has faced in its history. There’s a very reasonable argument to be made that if your actions shake the sport to its core like that, then you should not be memorialized in the Hall of Fame. The sign stealing scandal has convinced me more of the latter position. I see the argument as less about the “character clause” and more about the fact that, on net, Bonds and Clemens probably did more harm to the game than they did good. This is probably an unfair standard to judge them on, because there were lots of players before them who did steroids but whose steroid use didn’t cause as much public damage, either because they weren’t as good or because their steroid use came before fans decided they had a problem with it (see McGwire and Sosa). But I think it makes sense.

On Schilling and the “character clause”; Curt Schilling is a noxious, disgusting human being, who uses his platform to espouse unconscionable views and advocate for white nationalism and harm to journalists. But Bonds has serious allegations of domestic abuse against him, and Clemens was accused of statutory rape of a 15 year old girl. I think you can thread the needle there and say Schilling’s views are disqualifying because he would use the platform given by a Hall induction to espouse them, while Bonds and Clemens would not. But that’s not a line I’m willing to draw, and I’m certainly not willing to say that Schilling’s actions are more deplorable than Bonds’ or Clemens’. I think I would lean towards allowing the scoundrels whose actions didn’t constitute Crimes Against Baseball in, although you could certainly argue that Schilling’s odious public presence hurts public perception of baseball. I think on principle I would have to let Schilling in. On the other hand, him getting in would give him a platform for his bullshit (possibly in his induction speech), and if I had the vote, I don’t think I would feel comfortable playing a role in making that happen. So I think it would be a no for me on all three, although I’ll cop to being a hypocrite on Schilling.

So there you have it; I just ranted for 1,100 words on a subject I admitted I don’t care very much about. I’m lots of fun at parties.

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DisAstros on a Global Scale

I don’t think it’s at all an exaggeration to say that the sign stealing scandal is the biggest story in baseball since the height of the steroid era, and may end up being even more detrimental to the sport. I don’t think it was a given that a sign stealing scandal would become this big of a story. Sign stealing — even electronic sign stealing — has been a part of the game basically since the beginning of baseball; Steven Goldman of Baseball Prospectus has a story about the Cincinnati Reds catching the Philadelphia Phillies sending signs to their batters through a telegraph wire in a game way back in 1900. One of the most famous moments in baseball history is the Shot Heard Round The World; the 1951 New York Giants were among the most notorious sign-stealers of all time, stationing a man and binoculars in center field and having him relay signs electronically to the bullpen, who would then relay them to the batters. 

Given baseball’s long history of such activity (and fans’ frequent acceptance and even embrace of it as part of the lore of the game), it’s almost surprising that this is the scandal that brought baseball to the brink. But it shouldn’t be. Baseball teams do any manner of unethical, immoral, and occasionally illegal things that make stealing signs look like child’s play. But a scandal like this strikes at the core not just of the game, but of sports in general. One of the biggest appeals of sports is the belief that, unlike in the real world, we can trust that the outcome on the statsheet or the scoreboard reflects some kind of fairness. In order for sports to have this appeal, we have to believe the things we see on the field. This was, from a fan perspective, the worst outcome of the steroid era — every great performance by a player, especially every performance that seemed aberrant (like a player pulling a Brady Anderson and going from good to great in the span of an offseason) raised a question; is this real? In order for a sport to matter at all, people need to believe that the outcome wasn’t a result of cheating. Is there a murky line between what we consider gamesmanship and what we consider cheating? Does the line often shift based on myriad cultural factors and media coverage? Of course; just look at the popular perception of steroids in 1998 versus 2005. But the point is, any time you start toeing the line, you’re playing with fire.

Why did the Astros scandal blow up if in substance it’s almost exactly the same as similar infractions in baseball history, and probably less egregious a violation than the Red Sox’ essentially unpunished use of Apple Watches in the dugout in 2017? Maybe it was the fact that you could hear the damn thing on the TV broadcasts; Jomboy and the other internet sleuths had a field day going through old Astros game footage and finding incontrovertible proof of the Astros’ scheme. Maybe it was the numerous previous allegations of sign-stealing levied against the Astros, or the fact that they had won the World Series that year. Whatever the case, this story became one that had the potential to decimate baseball in a similar way that the Steroid Era did. And for whatever other comparisons you could make to that time (at least with sign stealing, nobody felt pressured to shoot potentially dangerous chemicals into their ass), the sign stealing scandal has the potential to be even more harmful than the steroid era to the perception of baseball’s competitive integrity. With the steroid era, people questioned individual achievements and individual records. After the sign stealing scandal broke, people were ready to throw the legitimacy of the past two World Series into question. No scandal since the Black Sox has done more damage to the legitimacy of the outcome of the World Series.

To his (partial) credit, Commissioner Manfred’s report and the punishment he levied out appear to at least reflect what a problem this represents for baseball. The report and the punishments seem incongruous both to the facts and to each other. The report makes the trash can-banging scheme out as “player-driven”, with only then-bench coach Alex Cora involved in setting it up among management. Manager AJ Hinch, per the report, had no hand in the scheme, and the front office was apparently totally unaware. Neither of these things sound true; the Astros’ front office was notorious for both its micromanagement of its players and its willingness to engage in any practice that would increase its chances of winning, and the idea that they wouldn’t know about a scheme this involved (and this obvious) is quite frankly unbelievable. At the same time, both Hinch and Luhnow were suspended for the 2020 season and then summarily fired by owner Jim Crane (possibly at Manfred’s direction); the players in this “player-driven” scheme were unpunished. Obviously there were practical and pragmatic concerns with this outcome (players were awarded immunity for their testimony, any player suspensions would mean a battle with the players’ association), but it’s still surprising from reading the report.

There has been a lot of completely fair criticism of the penalties. For one thing, the punishment does very little to punish the Astros as an organization. The loss of a manager and GM, plus two top draft picks in 2020 and 2021 and a $5 million fine, does very little to make the Astros worse in the near-term, and it doesn’t come close to matching the benefit they received from the scheme, both in winning the World Series and in the huge financial windfall they made from winning the World Series (reasonable estimates put that figure as high as a quarter of a billion dollars). But punishing the Astros largely wasn’t the point of punishing the Astros. Manfred had two goals here; deterrence, and mitigation of the reputational damage to the game. If you believe, like I do, that this was a scheme that the front office had a hand in to some degree (or even if you believe the report’s insistence that management’s failure was a failure to supervise) then essentially banning the manager and GM from baseball, at least for the time being, and the promise of even harsher punishment for future offenses is probably a good enough deterrent. World Series titles are only good to members of the front office insofar as they give them job security; threatening that job security if they get there by stealing signs will likely keep them from doing it. 

As far as limiting the reputational damage to the game, Manfred has to convince the public that all the bad actors have been rooted out. His approach has been primarily to try and convince the public that the bad actors were limited to two teams, the Astros and the Red Sox, who are being investigated for sign-stealing in the 2018 World Series and whose punishment hasn’t been handed out yet. This is a problem because it simply isn’t true. There are numerous other teams who have been accused of sign-stealing with varying degrees of credibility. Sign stealing, as every single investigative report has detailed, was pervasive in the game; the Astros, because of the visibility and flagrency of their offenses, deserve to be made an example of, but they certainly are not alone in deserving punishment. And because MLB has staked its credibility on this issue on a premise we all know to be untrue, it’s in a very precarious place. One inaccuracy in their report coming to light, one more expose revealing another team’s sign-stealing exploits, and the entire thing unravels. We saw this today, when allegations that Jose Altuve had a wire under his jersey feeding him signs, based on tweets from someone claiming to be Carlos Beltran’s niece and the fact that Altuve didn’t want his shirt ripped off after his pennant-winning home run, turned baseball twitter into a bad approximation of a QAnon 4Chan thread. The sport is teetering on a legitimacy precipice right now, and all it takes is a brisk wind to knock it over the edge.

But the sign stealing scandal epitomizes an even more fundamental problem with baseball right now. Manfred touches on it in the report. He calls out the Astros, and Jeff Luhnow in particular, for having a “problematic” team culture which “valued and rewarded results over other considerations”. This is a somewhat oblique way of putting it. The Astros have a reputation throughout baseball as a team whose philosophy is essentially that if a marginal advantage can be had, it must be relentlessly pursued, regardless of ethical considerations. This is the team that viewed a player who had been suspended for domestic violence not as a human being who had done a terrible thing but as a distressed asset who could be had for cheap. This is the team that then took so much pride in that worldview that their assistant GM felt the need to proclaim their vindication to three female reporters on the night they won the pennant, as if winning the pennant was a salve for amoral conduct. They had been the most aggressive “tanking” team in baseball, ignoring possible damage that not even attempting to win could do to the relationship between the team and the community. They had become among the most aggressive front offices in utilizing advanced stats which were touted by some credulous reporters as capable of turning average players into MVPs, and had used their statistical “innovations” to justify eliminating all but a handful of scouts and treating both baseball personnel and players as replaceable. And they had been hailed as brilliant for it. They’d been the subject of fawning coverage, including several books, which framed their approach (and the on-field success it had appeared to bring) as revolutionary. There have been many reporters over the past two months who have asked whether the sign stealing taints the Astros’ legacy. But they’re asking the wrong question. The relentless pursuit of marginal advantage above ethical and moral considerations, including the long-term health of the sport, was always the Astros’ legacy. It’s just that now, the sign stealing scandal has made the negative consequences that legacy carries plain enough for even the Sawchiks, Lindberghs, and Reiters of the world to see.

But this philosophy isn’t limited to the Astros (though they are its biggest and most strident ambassadors). It isn’t even limited to the front offices filled with quants and Luhnow clones trying to squeeze every marginal advantage possible out of their rosters, regardless of the aesthetic appeal of their strategies or the interests of their fans. It pervades Major League Baseball as an institution. It’s present in ownership’s decision to respond to falling attendance not by dropping prices to increase attendance, but by maximizing revenue through “luxury experiences” and dynamic pricing that extracts as much money as possible from the thinning crowds that do attend. It’s present in baseball’s reliance on cable revenue leading to decisions like blackout restrictions and removal of games from broadcast television, both of which make baseball’s TV rights more lucrative but make the sport even harder to watch. It’s present in the capital strike that slowed baseball’s offseason to a halt in 2018-19 (and which has subsided for unexplained reasons in 2020), in which ownership seemed to prioritize maximizing near-term profits over the labor peace which had allowed baseball to flourish economically since the last strike. Which is what made Manfred’s condemnation of the Astros’ culture in his report ring so hollow. The report itself, like so many actions the Commissioner has taken, encouraged, or allowed over his tenure, was far more concerned with mitigating short-term damage than doing the equitable thing or preserving the game’s long-term stature. And when the whole league is operating like the Astros, sooner or later, the other shoe is gonna drop, and the damage done will be as evident as the banging of a trash can on a midweek day game in Houston.

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Ominous portents on a sunny day

The Nats won again last night, their ninth in the past ten games. That’s good! Winning is always good. They’re 20-17, they’ve escaped fourth place for the first time since April 11th, and they’re just a game and a half back of Atlanta. All good things. What’s been powering this stretch? Well, for one thing, Matt Adams. Adams in his last 12 games has hit .415/.510/1.049 with 8 homers and 20 RBIs. He had a stretch with 7 homers in 7 games. On the season, he’s been far and away the team’s best offensive player — all this stuff you know. For the record, I was wondering how Adams’ two weeks compared to Bryce Harper’s two week stretch in May 2015, and, well, it… doesn’t. From May 6-22 that year, Bryce hit .522/.621/1.348 (!!!!!) with 11 homers. Makes Adams’ two weeks look like child play. That’s the kind of stretch that can carry a team all on its own, and did.

Speaking of Bryce, what the team has done recently they’ve basically done without him. He’s hitting .188/.328/.458 over the past two weeks, and while he hit 4 homers in that stretch (including the longest homer hit by a Nat at Nats Park), he’s basically done nothing else, and he’s 0 for his last 19. Part of that’s bad luck (he hit 4 screamers on Monday with nothing to show for it), but he’s also not walking anymore — he’s had only 2 walks in the 8 games he’s been in the leadoff spot, which was by design, but the design only works if he’s hitting the pitches he’s getting to see. He looks gassed, and tonight is a good time for his first day off. The guys who’ve been supporting Adams have been Trea Turner (.362/.464/.553 over the past two weeks), Howie Kendrick (.319/.360/.532) and… Wilmer Difo? Difo’s at .378/.478/.595, including two dingers. He’s been worth almost a win over that stretch. The .400 BABIP says it’s not real, and the fact that he’s Wilmer Difo would suggest that too, but he’s a useful guy to have around even when his offense is 80% league average.

The other thing that’s been propelling the hot streak (and buoying the team when they weren’t hitting) is the starting pitching. In the last two weeks they’ve been phenomenal: 2.52 ERA, 2.72 FIP, 10.4 K/9, averaging 6 1/3 innings a start. And their full season numbers are great too: first in the NL in starter ERA, FIP, K/9, and innings pitched (by a pretty wide margin too). Individually, there’s not a ton to worry about — Scherzer’s been even better than ever, Strasburg’s strikeouts are down and homers are weirdly up but his velocity’s stable and he looks fine, Gio’s striking out more batters than ever even when his velocity’s never been lower, and Roark’s been decent even though it doesn’t seem like he’s fully recaptured the runback fastball he had in 2016. The one outlier in the bunch is Hellickson, who was phenomenal again last night. The man throws slop, and he’s obviously not gonna be this good even with Davey limiting his times through the order exposure, but Hellickson’s always thrown slop, and he’s had varying degrees of success with it before, so there’s no reason he can’t keep fooling hitters over a full season.

So why’d I title this post “Ominous Portents on a Sunny Day”? Well, contrary to my Twitter presence, I’m not really a worrier by nature. But I’m still not feeling confident in this team. For one thing, the bullpen (which has already been bad, with the 4th-worst ERA in the NL) is constructed in such a way that makes its collapse feel likely. The team has three relievers it can trust, Madson, Kintzler, and Doolittle. All three of those relievers are over 30, and two of them have terrifying histories of arm trouble which make them the types of guys that should be protected early in the season. But they’ve been worked really hard in a way that isn’t entirely reflected in the stats — only Kintzler is in the top 30 in the NL in innings pitched — but there have been a lot of games where they have been forced to throw in the bullpen without getting into the game. This is a direct result of the fact that Davey feels (justifiably) that he can’t trust his non Big Three relievers with any lead: take Monday for instance, where after Trevor Gott put two runners on with no outs in the eighth inning of a 5 run game, Davey felt he needed to get Ryan Madson warm, and then did the same with Doolittle when Carlos Torres put multiple runners on in the ninth. All that work in the bullpen can lead to injury — Aaron Barrett, for instance, has blamed Matt Williams’ warming him up near-constantly for the arm troubles that derailed his career. And even if it doesn’t lead to injury, it can certainly lead to ineffectiveness down the line, and without even one of the Big Three at their best, the Nats bullpen is cooked.

But obviously the bullpen isn’t the number one red flag surrounding this team; the most terrifying thing is the injuries. I don’t know when or even if Daniel Murphy and Adam Eaton are coming back, and what kind of players they’ll be if they do. Microfracture surgery on your knees isn’t a surgery you just come back from, especially when like Murphy your swing relies so much on leg drive. The fact that he can’t run without discomfort, 7 months after the surgery, is terrifying, and makes the date of his return an open question. Eaton seems to be going backward, unable to do any baseball activities a full month after his “minor” bone bruise, and after you blow up your leg that severely, recovery from any leg injury should not be taken as a given. The Nats can cover for those injuries as well as can be expected: if everyone is hitting as expected, a Harper/Turner/Rendon/Adams/Zimmerman/Kendrick/Wieters/Pitcher/Taylor lineup certainly looks like a major league lineup. The problem is that a) not everyone is hitting: Zimmerman’s got an 80 OPS+ on the year, Taylor only 57, and b) having to plug your depth into the lineup on an everyday basis weakens your team and makes it impossible to cover for any further injuries. With Goodwin and Robles also on the DL, the Nats only have Wilmer Difo left as major league-quality depth (plus Mark Reynolds whenever he gets here). As we saw when Rendon got hurt, making Moises Sierra the 5th hitter, this team simply cannot withstand any more injuries and be competitive offensively. All it takes is one more injury to make the whole thing collapse.

The Nats are playing well, and it’s more likely than not that they’ll keep doing so — they’re a very talented team, and I’d put their odds of winning the division at around 60%. But they’re in a fragile position where even one more injury for a prolonged stretch could send them reeling for a while. And with the Braves looking pretty legit, with a run differential even better than the Nats and Acuna playing like everyone expected them to, and the Phillies looking solid too, it’s not a given that they could withstand an elongated stretch of poor play. Anyway, there’s your wet blanket.

Celebrate whatever you want

I’m not a Caps fan or a hockey fan, and for about half of their playoff runs I’ve been actively ambivalent about their success, mostly because I can’t stand the thought of other people in the same fanbase as me being happy while I’m stuck here being miserable. But even as a barely-involved person, I don’t understand the policing of DC Sports fans who want to celebrate getting out of the second round with all the fervor of a championship.

First, it should be mentioned that the DC Sports conference finals curse story doesn’t exist merely because they’ve had no teams make the finals, but because they’ve had a lot of teams that were good enough to do it and haven’t. Those teams are exclusively concentrated in the Caps and Nats; the anguish of being a Redskins fan comes from the fact that the team is both a three ring circus and one of the most cringe-inducing teams in an already morally-dubious sport, and the suffering of Wizards fans comes from the fact that their team is locked into a Sartreian hell of perpetual mediocrity from which their is no escape. The conference finals drought story comes from the fact that the Nats and Caps have had so many teams with bona fide championship aspirations get tripped up before they could even get as far as the conference finals. So the reason people are celebrating, obviously, is that there’s this sense that once they get past this stumbling block, anything’s possible.

And honestly, why try and take away that feeling from people? It’ll be a nice alternative from the dumb fatalism that every DC sports fan seems to adopt. The problem with fatalism is that it’s really a form of narcissism: thinking that the universe has cursed your teams to fail suggests that the universe gives a shit about you and your teams, which it doesn’t; the universe is cold and unfeeling, and your sports teams fail because sports are like that. Or maybe it’s because you didn’t love them enough.

But more importantly, why begrudge people for celebrating anything in sports? If it makes you happy, you should celebrate it. Acting like you’ve been there before is for people who’ve actually been there before. You never know if that next series victory is ever gonna come. Besides, what’s the harm in celebrating? If the Caps win this series, they’ll be playing Tampa in the conference finals whether or not the fans celebrate the second round victory. And if the Caps win that series, the fact that fans celebrated the previous serious win isn’t gonna bridle their enthusiasm for the next one. There isn’t a limit to the amount of sports joy that you can have.

Listen, believing in sports curses is dumb, and at worst, can lead to a fanbase with a sense of perpetual cosmic aggrievement even when the wins eventually come (fuck you, Boston). But if the conference finals mean something to you, go nuts celebrating it. Sports are supposed to be fun. Have fun.

Taking stock

The Nats’ homestand went about as well as could reasonably be expected given the teams they faced. They lost two of three to the Diamondbacks, who have played like the best team in baseball and whose odds at winning their division I’d put at over 50% (although I, a frail human, am prone to recency bias and also would prefer to see the Dodgers dethroned). They swept the Pirates, who are somehow 4 games over with a positive run differential, and I guess if you squint really hard you can see mediocrity there instead of abject terribleness (although I would love to see the team suffer for their refusal to commit to building a pennant contender during their window, then auctioning off their franchise cornerstone and a guy who’s looking pretty ace-y right now for parts — picking up Corey Dickerson when another team went blatant salary dump looks pretty smart though). Winning the series against the Phillies probably felt more important to me than it actually was —  it coincided exactly with the 6th anniversary of the Nats’ “Take Back The Park” series, and there were a lot of similarities between the Phillies now and the Nats then (upstart team playing well even though people assumed they were a year away from really contending) and between the Nats now and the Phillies then (older team at the end of a window whom everyone expected would dominate their division but instead were plagued with early injuries). Even if I’m the only one who saw any symbolic significance in a early-May series, I think we can all agree that winning is better than losing in general.  Winning: good. Losing: less good.

The Nats should send the Phillies a nice thank you note in exchange for that win they gift-wrapped and handed over. The eighth and ninth inning “rallies” consisted of: a walk to Moises Sierra (!), another walk, a squibbed infield single, a two-run single (actually well hit!); and a Matt Wieters infield single (I don’t know how it happened either), a two-base pickoff error, a hit by pitch, a walk to Michael Taylor (!), a bases-loaded walk (!) to Pedro Severino (!), and a pop up to center, which happened to be vacated (good work Gabe!). Credit to the Nats for not rejecting this generous gift, but this was an instance of bad pitching beating itself more than anything else.

Anyway, the Nats won, and they’re over .500 again, and they’ve got a pythagorean winning percentage two games better than their actual record. They’re still in fourth place, but thanks to the Mets metsing all over the place and the division self-immolating a bit in general, they’re only a game back of second and two back of first. Reports of their early-season demise may have been a bit exaggerated.

The bats woke up for a brief stretch in the Pirates series (although that may say more about the Pirates pitching than anything else), and you may not believe it, but the Nats are actually second in the league in OBP, slugging percentage and OPS. The problem is that up until this week, the offense had largely been concentrated in one player (the one with the good hair), making it difficult to score runs when he wasn’t up, and making it difficult for him to drive in runs due to the constant pitch-arounds and “unintentional” walks. Moving Harper to the leadoff spot has led to fewer pitch-arounds, and Matt Adams suddenly deciding to share something other than a body type with Babe Ruth, along with Anthony Rendon’s return should help with that problem. Rendon, by the way, seems to be moving just fine, and that brace on his foot absorbed the impact of a foul ball enough that Rendon didn’t so much as wince. Obviously, you never want a player playing on a broken toe, and the possibility still exists that he either a) re-injures it or b) compensates for the injury by changing his swing mechanics, and sucks for a while, but with the offense in the dire straits it was in, you didn’t really have a choice but to risk it and bring him back.

The strength of this team is in its starting pitching, as always. “Max Scherzer is taking it to new levels” is a phrase I feel like I say every year, but that’s what he’s doing. He leads the NL in most significant categories, including strikeouts; Scherzer already has 20 more strikeouts than any other NL pitcher (he’s got 80 in 51.2 innings, Patrick Corbin is second with 60). He struck out 15 in 6 1/3 innings today, as you know, and was disappointed in himself — correctly! He didn’t have his good command, and kept falling behind batters to create long counts. And he still struck out 15! He’s amazing.

Elsewhere around the starting rotation, Strasburg’s been just OK, for him, and he’s got a weird home run problem that he hasn’t had at any other point in his career. 7 starts in, it’s probably nothing, especially since everything else (velocity, K rate, walk rate) is where it should be. Gio has been even better than last year, somehow, and he’s even striking out guys at what would be a career-best rate. I can’t believe he’s made the “guy with crafty lefty stuff and buckshot command” thing work, but he has, somehow. It almost seems like he doesn’t throw a strike unless he absolutely has to, which can make his starts excruciating to watch, but hey, if it’s working don’t change a thing. Roark’s been perfectly good, although he still seems to be struggling to find the runback two-seamer that made him so good in 2016 on a consistent basis. And Jeremy “The 60 Pitch Wonder” Hellickson’s been great so far in his limited deployment; I happen to agree with the short leash for him, because while I don’t think the twice through the order penalty should be applied as broadly as it is in the modern game, Hellickson is the exact type of slop-thrower whom you’d expect hitters to hit better the more times they see him.

The bullpen’s got issues. Brandon Kintzler looks like Brandon Kintzler again, so he’s not one of them. Doolittle’s been as lockdown as they come. Madson’s looked shaky since Davey pushed him within an inch of his life (probably shouldn’t have done that), but the velocity’s fine and I wouldn’t classify him as a person to worry about just yet. The real problem is in the dregs. The Nats have one lefty reliever other than Doolittle, and it’s Sammy Solis, a guy with an injury list almost as long as Ryan Zimmerman’s. Because Davey likes to play matchup ball, he’s been using Solis as you would a typical LOOGY — a ton of very short stints. Solis leads the entire league in appearances (19), but stands fourth on his own team in innings pitched (13.1). Solis has been reasonably effective in this role (he’s holding lefties to a .470 OPS), but it’s the worst possible way to use a guy with his history as a starter, his stuff (which can play against righties), and most importantly his injury history. A LOOGY gets dry-humped (warmed up in games he doesn’t pitch) more than any other relief role; that’s no place for a guy like Solis. Matt Grace’s incipient return should help Solis’ workload, but it won’t help the team, because Matt Grace sucks. Elsewhere amongst the dregs, Shawn Kelley is coming back, so if you’re going to any Nats games in the future and planning on sitting in the outfield seats, probably bring your glove. And Wander Suero’s got a magic cutter, but it’s way too soon to tell with him. I’d keep him up and DFA Torres/send down Gott when Grace Kelley gets back, but who knows what they’ll do.

Which brings us to the manager: how’s Davey doing? Well, moving Harper to leadoff was inspired and it’s had its desired effect: Harper is seeing pitches again. It’s also the kind of thing Dusty probably wouldn’t have done — Dusty prioritized letting players get comfortable with their roles within a lineup. But, Davey seems to have a problem with bullpen management; there’s no reliable measure for how many times he’s dry-humped a reliever, but anecdotally it seems like that’s been happening way more than last year, and it’s something rookie managers in general seem to struggle with (which is why it might be a good thing to have a veteran team with veteran bullpen arms managed by a veteran). But on the “intangible factors” front, Davey seems to be doing fine; the players seem to like him (especially Bryce, who may not have the best taste in this category) and seem ok with the particular brand of Maddon-esque “look how much fun we’re having” antics that I find grating. So I’ll reserve judgment on Davey until a later date.

The bottom line is, despite playing well below their best baseball for the first 35 games of the season, the road to the division still runs through DC, at this point I’d take the Nats over the field for the division (Fangraphs has their division odds at 77%, which seems a touch high to me, but not ludicrously so). The division is improved from last year, but it’s still too early to say how much; I like the Braves and the Phillies, but projecting young talent is hard to do, and the Mets, as we’ve seen, can up and mets all over the place at any moment. The Nats have a six game road trip coming up, 3 with the Padres and 3 with the DBacks. The Padres are awful; the DBacks are really good. I’d say a 3-3 trip is fine, and a 4-2 trip would be a success. This is the team they’re gonna have for a while — who knows when Murphy and Eaton will be back — so they’ve gotta stay afloat with it.

Here’s Some Content

What’s up? You might know me from Twitter. I’m Jacob Rasch, I’m a law student, and I tweet a lot about the Nats. Law school is stressful as hell, so now I’m gonna blog. You may ask yourself: what can this random internet guy add to The Discourse, which is already oversaturated and not in particular need of the voice of another stressed out young professional white guy? Well, here’s my deal.

I don’t know crap about stats: I took one stats class in college; it was a “statistics for political science majors” course, and it did not go well. I understand the basics, obviously: I can tell you how the linear weights in wOBA work, and I get the basic tenets of FIP even if I can’t calculate it myself. Basically, I know enough about the #fancystats to criticize them. But if you’re looking for some in depth stuff, you won’t find it here. I appreciate the work that Robs Arthur and Mains do, even if I don’t understand it for shit, but I’m not capable of it.

I don’t give a shit about your goddamn prospects: I will never understand the joy some people find in prospect-gazing. Why idealize players that might be around someday when you could be appreciating the ones that are already in front of you? Anyway, this is mostly me making an excuse for the fact that a couple months ago, when I said I was a huge baseball fan, someone asked me about Heliot Ramos, and I’d never heard of him, so I said “oh, he’s a hard thrower, but he’s gotta find his command before he can advance.” This generic line applies to just about every pitching prospect that has ever existed, so I figured I’d be fine. Unfortunately, Heliot Ramos is an outfielder.

So, if I can’t do the two types of baseball writing that exist in the world, what do I bring you? My favorite type of baseball writing, the type that guys like Patrick Dubuque and David Roth and Rachael McDaniel and a lot of the Short Relief staff do really well, is the type of writing that connects baseball to the outside world and tells a personal story about one’s relationship with the sport. But that kind of stuff is way out of my league; basically the only cool thing I can do is describe any Nats game over the past 7 years if you give me the date and the team they were playing (oh, and I can also tell you every World Series matchup from 1939 on off the top of my head). However, what I can provide is a bunch of half-baked and poorly-researched hot takes about the Nats, that I’ve littered with anecdotes about some player you vaguely recall in some game you have no reason to remember. I started my Twitter account to release my inchoate baseball rage onto the world; now I’m gonna be doing it here too, but with more words (again, you don’t have to read). Anyway, I hope you enjoy whatever this turns into, even if I don’t know what that’s gonna be.

P.S.: I tried this once before, 4 years ago. For a whole offseason. I was trying to imitate somebody else’s style (Rob Neyer’s — I have since learned my lesson), writing in a mode I wasn’t particularly well-equipped for. I’m using this address because I already had it registered; please do not read any of my old posts, they’re awful.

Warm Furnace: Top 50 Free Agent Predictions 2014-2015

Another year, another list of free agent predictions, which will most likely be completely wrong. Only time will tell how accurate this list is. DISCLOSURE: If you bet money based off these prediction, I am not liable for your losses.

(List from MLBTradeRumors)

1. Max Scherzer – Rangers

After a disappointing 2014 campaign, the Texas Rangers will be looking to rebound in 2015, as they get players like Prince Fielder, Elvis Andrus, and Yu Darvish back from season ending injuries. Even with those players back, the Rangers will still need to bolster their rotation if they want to be contenders. In comes Max Scherzer, who, coming off a Cy Young Campaign in 2013, had another great year in 2014, going 18-5 with a 3.15 ERA. While he will be expensive, adding Scherzer will definitely improve what is otherwise a lackluster rotation behind Yu Darvish and Derrick Holland.

Other Possibilities: Red Sox, Cubs, Yankees

2. Jon Lester – Red Sox

After spending 8 1/2 years in Boston, winning 2 World Series during his time there, Lester was traded to the Oakland A’s at this year July Trading Deadline for Yoneis Cespedes, in one of the biggest and most surprising deadline deals in recent history. After posting a 10-7 record and a 2.52 ERA in Boston, Lester continued to succeed in Oakland, going 6-4 with a 2.35 ERA in 11 starts. While he did struggle in his one postseason start this year (7.1 IP, 6 ER), Lester provided solid pitching for the A’s down the stretch. Even though they weren’t contenders in 2014, the Red Sox set themselves up nicely to make a run in 2015 with the acquisitions of Yoenis Cespedes, Allen Craig, and Joe Kelly at the Trade Deadline. With the addition of Lester back in Bean Town, the Red Sox could put up a fight with the Orioles for AL East supremacy. However, look for the Cubs to also be a strong contender to the southpaw, as current Cubs President of Baseball Operations Theo Epstein and Lester have a strong connection going back to their days in Boston.

Other Possibilities: Cubs, A’s, Yankees

3. James Shields – Cubs

Since coming over from Tampa Bay back in 2013, Shields has put up great numbers in his two seasons in Kansas City, going 27-17 with a 3.18 ERA during his time there. While “Big Game James” didn’t live up to his nickname in the Royals postseason run (7.20 ERA in 5 starts), Shields will still have no problem making top-starter money this offseason. The Cubs will be looking to make a splash in Free Agency this offseason, with numerous prospects on the cusp of the MLB. With former Rays manager and baseball mastermind Joe Madden at the reign in 2015, the Cubs will have a legitimate shot at signing Shields, as Shields may feel quite comfortable in the South Side, with his former manager now running the show.

Other Possibilities: Red Sox, Yankees, Rangers 

4. Hanley Ramirez – Yankees

During his tenure in LA, Ramirez managed to put together 2 1/2 sensational years offensively at the shortstop position, ranking top 3 in a majority of offensive statistics. While his offense is a positive for Ramirez, his defense at short and his health are two major red flags for perspective teams. Ramirez, who will turn 31 in December, has only been able to play 211 games in 2013-14. He has also been one of the worst defensive shortstops over that span. Possibly the best move for Ramirez would be a shift back to third, where he played in his final season in LA. However, Ramirez is one of few potential shortstops on the market, and a team like the Yankees, who just lost their shortstop, are in desperate need for someone to man that position. Ramirez will likely get a contract of about 7 years, $160 million, and the Yankees always have the funds to buy free agents.

Other Possibilities: Dodgers, Giants, Red Sox

5. Pablo Sandoval – Giants

Sandoval, who turned 28 in August, will be the top third baseman on the market this offseason, which will entitle him to a large payday. However, over the past 4 seasons, Sandoval’s numbers have been regressing, and his weight will be a concern for any team that wants to sign him long-term. The Giants, who offered Sandoval a qualifying offer, will have a gaping hole at third of Sandoval decides to leave them.

Other Possibilities: Red Sox, Nationals, Angels

6. Victor Martinez – Mariners

In 2014, Martinez managed to have a career in his age 35 season, hitting .335/.409/.565 and 32 home runs. Martinez will be looking to cash in on his big year, but teams might be weary of signing Martinez to more than a 1 year deal, as he is already 35. V-Mart will also most likely have to sign with an AL team, as he can’t play the field anymore. This past year, the Mariners were on the cusp of making the postseason, finishing 1 GB of the A’s for the second wild card spot. If the Mariners want to make their first postseason since 2001, they will need to improve offensively, including at their DH, which was the worst in the AL in almost all offensive categories. Adding Martinez will provide some much needed protection for Robinson Cano, and add depth to their lineup.

Other Possibilities: White Sox, Tigers, Orioles

7. Melky Cabrera – White Sox

After receiving a 50-game suspension in 2012, Melky Cabrera signed a 2 year, $16 million deal with the Blue Jays in the 2012-13 offseason. After an injury plagued 2013, Cabrera put together a quality 2014 season, hitting .301 with 16 home runs in 139 games. Cabrera, who turned 30 in August, will most likely be seeking a multi-year deal with a team needing a corner outfielder. However, since the Blue Jays offered Cabrera a qualifying offer, any team that would want to sign Cabrera would forfeit their first round draft pick. However, initial reports has the two sides being far apart on negotiations. A team like the White Sox, who are in need for a corner outfielder, could make the Melk Man a sizable, multi-year offer.

Other Possibilities: Tigers, Blue Jays, Mets

8. Russell Martin – Blue Jays

As the best catcher in the free agent pool, Russell Martin will be seeing a lot of offers from teams that are in need of catchers. Martin had a great year in the Pittsburg not only offensively, but defensively as well, throwing 39% of runners behind the dish. While the Blue Jays did just sign catcher Dioner Navarro to a two year deal last offseason, they could always move him to DH and play Martin at catcher, since they just traded away DH Adam Lind.

Other Possibilities: Cubs, Pirates, Astros

9. Nelson Cruz – Orioles

After signing a 1 year, $8 million contract with the O’s last off season, Cruz put together a monster 2014 campaign, hitting .271/.333/.525, leading all of baseball in home runs with 40. Cruz, who was coming off a PED suspension in 2013, is going to get a pay raise, as he was already offered a qualifying offer by the Orioles earlier this week. While he may turn that offer down, there is still mutual interest between the O’s and Cruz to bring Cruz back to Baltimore for at least the next several seasons.

Other Possibilities: Mariners, Tigers, Blue Jays

10. Yasmany Thomas – Rangers

The 24 year old Cuban defector Thomas has a chance to receive the biggest contract for a Cuban player. A bar for contracts has already been set for Cuban outfielders by other defectors like Yasiel Puig and Rusney Castillio. Thomas is a high risk, high reward player, as there isn’t much certainty than other past Cuban outfielders. But Thomas’s raw power could potential score him a 7 year, $100+ million contract. The Rangers, who are losing Alex Rios this offseason, will have to find someone who can play right field for them in 2015 and beyond, and the power hitting righty will be able to fill that void.

Other Possibilities: Phillies, Tigers, Padres

11. Ervin Santana – Pirates

Ervin Santana is in another tricky situation this off season. While there are plenty of teams that would want the almost 32 year old righty, the Braves offered him a $15.3 million qualifying offer. While that is a lot of money, Santana might not want to take the one year offer, and look elsewhere for a multi-year deal. However, other clubs may be hesitant to sign Santana, because they would have to forfeit their first round draft to the Braves in exchange for him. If Santana declines his qualifying offer, look for him to be one of the last pitchers to sign this off season. Meanwhile, the Pirates may lose 40% of their rotation this off season, as both Francisco Liriano and Edison Volquez are free agents. If they lose them both, they will definitely be in the market for a starting pitcher.

Other Possibilities: Braves, Royals, Red Sox

12. Kenta Maeda – Rockies

As this offseason’s major Japanese pitcher, Maeda, 27, will get a lot of looks from teams that missed out on Tanaka last year. While his stuff is not as good as Tanaka’s is, he still may cost as much as him, as any team that wants to sign him will still have to pay $20 million posting fee to the Hiroshima Carp. A team with a weak rotation, like the Rockies, will be able to use Maeda as a top of the rotation guy.

Other Possibilities: Twins, Astros, Dodgers

13. David Robertson – Tigers

As the top reliever on the market this offseason, Robertson will be seeing a lot of offers from a bevy of teams that have a weak bullpen. One of those teams are the Detroit Tigers, who’s bullpen was 27th in the league in ERA. What may deter the Tigers from signing him is the fact that he was offered a qualifying offer by the Yankees. Robertson is one of the players who may accept his qualifying offer, but if he doesn’t, Detroit could be a major suitor for the reliever.

Other teams: Cubs, White Sox, Blue Jays

14. Brandon McCarthy – Braves

During his time in New York after the trade deadline, Brandon McCarthy had one of the bests stretches in his career, going 7-5 with a 2.89 ERA in 14 starts. This season was also McCarthy’s first season pitching 200 innings (he actually had exactly 200 between his time with the Yankees and the Diamondbacks). The Braves, who might be losing starters Ervin Santana and Aaron Harang, might also be without starters Kris Medlen (who may not even be back with the Braves in ’15) and Brandon Beachy for the start of the season. Signing the veteran McCarthy will help out the young Braves rotation headed by Julio Tehran and Alex Wood.

Other Possibilities: Royals, Pirates, Yankees

15. Francisco Liriano – Royals

After nine up and down seasons in Minnesota/Chicago, Liriano signed a two year deal with the Pirates, and really turned his career around, with a 3.20 ERA over his two years in Pittsburgh. However, Liriano is another player who is hurt by the qualifying offer, as a team would have to forfeit their first round pick to sign him. Fresh off of their first AL Pennant in 29 years, the Royals will have their work cut out for them this off-season, having to replace pitcher James Shields and DH Billy Butler. While Liriano isn’t as nearly as dominant as Shields is, he could slip into the rotation behind youngsters Danny Duffy and Yordano Ventura.

Other Possibilities: Cubs, Pirates, Braves

16. Chase Headley – Red Sox

Chase Headley quietly put together a very solid 2014 season, finishing the year with a 4.4 WAR, 7th best of all third basemen. While his offensive numbers won’t blow you away, Headley is one of the better third basemen in the league defensively. Unfortunately for Red Sox fans, protect Wil Middlebrooks isn’t progressing the way the team hoped, and it looks like it may be time for the team to move on from him. Headley could provide solid defense for the Red Sox at the hot corner, and fill a hole for the Red Sox the Middlebrooks couldn’t.

Other Possibilities: Giants, Yankees, Blue Jays

17. Andrew Miller – Cardinals

After a very good 2014 campaign with the Red Sox and the Orioles, Miller could help numerous teams in need for lefty set up man. Already this offseason, the Cardinals have been heavily connected with Miller, with a few uncertainties in their bullpen.

Other Possibilities: Brewers, Cubs, Tigers

18. Justin Masterson – Diamondbacks

To steal a line from the Tom Hanks classic Forrest Gump, “I got shot in the buttocks.” Wait, that wasn’t the line I wanted. What I meant to say was, “Life is like a box of chocolates; you never know what you’re going to get.” Well, in this scenario, Justin Masterson is like a box of chocolates, as you don’t know what you’re going get with him. After posting good numbers in 2011 and 2013 (3.21 ERA in 216 IP in ’11 and 3.45 ERA in 193 IP in ’13), Masterson struggled in 2012 and 2014 (4.93 ERA in 12, 5.88 ERA in ’14). It’s going to be hard to say what to expect from Masterson in 2015, which is why I expect a team like the Diamondbacks, whose rotation was 27th in the MLB in ERA in 2014, to take a waiver on Masterson as a low risk-high reward candidate.

Other Possibilities – Twins, Cubs, White Sox

19. Aramis Ramirez – Brewers

Ramirez and the Brewers both accepted their ends of his mutual option. He will be a Brewer for at least one more year.

Other Possibilities: NONE

20. Colby Rasmus – Tigers

After a down year, in which Rasmus lost the starting job, the 28 year old outfielder will be looking for a starting job outside of Toronto. In order to do that, Rasmus may have to shift from Centerfield, where he’s played the majority of his career, to a corner outfield position. The Tigers, who may be losing Torii Hunter, will need to sign someone who can take the vacant right field job.

Other Possibilities: White Sox, Mets, Giants

21. Jed Lowrie – Nationals

Other Possibilities: Mets, Blue Jays, Athletics

22. Jason Hammel – White Sox

Other Possibilities: Twins, Dodgers, Cubs

23. Asdrubal Cabrera – Blue Jays

Other Possibilities: Mets, Nationals, Yankees

24. Nick Markakis – Orioles

Other Possibilities: Giants, Mets, Royals

25. Adam LaRoche – Marlins

Other Possibilities: Mariners, Orioles, White Sox

26. Jake Peavy – Padres

Other Possibilities: Giants, Cubs, Royals

27. Hiroki Kuroda – Retirement

Other Possibilities: Yankees, Dodgers

28. Michael Morse – Mets

Other Possibilities: Giants, Royals, Rangers

29. Michael Cuddyer – Rockies

Other Possibilities: Giants, Mets, Tigers

30. Alex Rios – Royals

Other Possibilities: Giants, Mariners, Twins

31. Edison Volquez – Royals

Other Possibilities: Braves, Diamondbacks, Marlins

32. Luke Gregerson – Blue Jays

Other Possibilities: White Sox, Cubs, Tigers

33. Torii Hunter – Tigers

Other Possibilities: Twins, Orioles, Retirement

34. A.J. Burnett – Brewers

Other Possibilities: Royals, Pirates, Red Sox

35. Sergio Romo – Red Sox

Other Possibilities: Dodgers, White Sox, Astros

36. Francisco Rodriguez – Brewers

Other Possibilities: Blue Jays, Red Sox, Cubs

37. Rafael Soriano – Astros

Other Possibilities: Cubs, Rockies, Diamondbacks

38. Ryan Vogelsong – Giants

Other Possibilities: Royals, Dodgers, Cubs

39. Aaron Harang – Twins

Other Possibilities: Rockies, Marlins, White Sox

40. Nori Aoki – Reds

Other Possibilities: Royals, Giants, Mets

41. Billy Butler – Indians

Other Possibilities: Royals, Orioles, White Sox

42. Stephen Drew – Athletics

Other Possibilities: Mets, Astros, Reds

43. Emilio Bonifacio – Athletics

Other Possibilities: Nationals, Blue Jays, Braves

44. Casey Janssen – Yankees

Other Possibilities: Dodgers, Indians, Brewers

45. Pat Neshek – Indians

Other Possibilities: Astros, Twins, Diamondbacks

46. Brandon Morrow – Rockies

Other Possibilities: Dodgers, White Sox, Diamondbacks

47. Jason Grilli – White Sox

Other Possibilities: Orioles, Brewers, Mets

48. Brett Anderson – Mets

Other Possibilities: Twins, Cubs, Diamondbacks

49. Josh Johnson – Padres

Other Possibilities: Twins, Rays, Astros

50. Jung-Ho Kang – Dodgers

Other Possibilities: Orioles, Nationals, Astros

Best Case/Worst Case: 2014 Washington Nationals Season Preview

The 2014 baseball season is finally upon us, and while everyone likes to take their best stab at making predictions, thankfully, no one has any idea how it’s going to turn out — if we did, there’d be no point in watching.  With that in mind, we’ve decided that rather than make predictions, we’d rather just talk about the two extremes in a way a season can turn out — the best case and worst case scenarios.  Below is a reasonable best case scenario for each Nationals’ player, alongside a reasonable worst case scenario.  And we couldn’t help but make a few predictions, wrong though we know they’ll be — you’ll find those at the bottom of the page.

PITCHERS

Aaron Barrett

Best Case: Barrett builds off his remarkable spring, in which he pitched 10.2 scoreless innings with eight strikeouts, by putting together a very strong rookie campaign.  After striking out more than 12 batters per nine at AA Harrisburg last year, Barrett fans more than a batter an inning at the big league level.  He throws more than 60 innings with an ERA under 3.00, solidifying the sixth inning, and gives the club confidence that he can be used as a set-up man or even a closer in the future.

Worst Case: Barrett’s diving slider, the reason for his success in the minors, doesn’t fool big league hitters, causing his strikeout rate to drop and his walk rate to rise.  After giving up runs in his first couple outings, Barrett sits collecting dust at the back of the bullpen, and gets sent down to Syracuse by the middle of May.

Jerry Blevins

Best Case: Blevins does exactly what he was sent to Washington to do — get lefties out.  He holds left-handed batters to a .220/.270/.350 batting line (just better than his career averages).  But he also has success against right-handers, becoming a reliable southpaw set-up man in the mold of Sean Burnett in 2012.

Worst Case: In 2013, Blevins had a surprising reverse platoon split, allowing a .741 OPS to lefties against a .581 OPS to righties.  The trend continues, as while Blevins still manages to be an effective reliever, he cannot seem to put away left-handed hitting.  The Nationals still struggle to match up against the tough lefties in their division, like Chase Utley and Freddie Freeman.

Tyler Clippard

Best Case: Clippard continues his six-year run as one of the most successful relief pitchers in the major leagues, throwing 75 innings, striking out 10 batters per nine, and ending up with an ERA around 2.00.

Worst Case: Over the past five years, Clippard has thrown more relief innings than any pitcher in baseball, and the heavy workload finally catches up to him.  His strikeout rate, which dropped from 10.4 batters per nine in 2012 to 9.3 in 2013, continues to fall.  Clippard had a career low and league low .170 batting average on balls in play last year — that rises, drastically curtailing Clippard’s success.  And for the first time in his career, Tyler Clippard spends time on the Disabled List.

A.J. Cole

Best Case: Cole dominated in a 45 inning stint at AA Harrisburg, posting a 2.19 ERA, a WHIP under one and a 9.7 K/9 ratio.  His second stint at the level is so successful that after another 45 innings, he forces his way to AAA Syracuse.  He dominates there as well, and by September, the 22-year old has earned a call-up to the majors.

Worst Case: Cole spends the entire year at Harrisburg, posting an ERA in the mid-fours and only a league-average strikeout rate.  He never seems to master the level in his season in the Eastern League, and is forced to begin 2015 right back at Harrisburg.

Ross Detwiler

Best Case: Detwiler adjusts well to his new role in the bullpen, and gives the Nationals a unique weapon — a left-hander who not only can throw in the mid-nineties, but who can be used as both a long reliever and a situational reliever.  His strikeout rate, which stands at 5.4 K/9 for his big league career, nearly doubles out of the bullpen this year.

Worst Case: Detwiler struggles to make the adjustment from pitching every fifth day to pitching out of the bullpen.  He is not the dominant reliever the Nationals envisioned, as his strikeout rate fails to improve, and his lack of an effective off-speed pitch still haunts him, even when pitching an inning at a time.

Doug Fister

Best Case: Fister returns from the disabled list in mid-April, and he becomes everything the Nationals envisioned when they made the blockbuster trade to acquire him.  The 6’8″ righty still manages to throw 200+ innings, and buoyed by a defense much more agile than the one he pitched in front of in Detroit, nearly equals a career low 2.83 ERA.  He proves to be the best fourth starter in baseball, manages to win 18 games, and even receives a couple votes in the Cy Young balloting.

Worst Case: The lat issue proves more serious than Fister and the Nationals had hoped, and while Fister rushes back from the injury, he never fully recovers.  He never seems healthy, and is ineffective when on the mound.  The lat issue forces Fister to change his mechanics, leading to arm soreness, which causes the Nationals to shut him down in the middle of August.  Meanwhile, Robbie Ray ascends rapidly through the Tigers’ minor league system, earning a September call-up, and Steve Lombardozzi hits .298/.369/.411 (his minor-league averages) in 400 plate appearances with the Orioles.

Lucas Giolito

Best Case: Giolito is simply spectacular.  He starts the season at low-A Hagerstown, but manages to finish the season at AA Harrisburg after dominating both the South Atlantic League and the Carolina League.  His 2014 performance earns him both a place in Baseball America’s Top 10 Prospects list and an invite to major league Spring Training in 2015.  A major league debut before his 21st birthday (which will be on July 14th, 2015) becomes a distinct possibility.

Worst Case: The only true worst-case scenario for Giolito would be a recurrence of the elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery in 2012. If Giolito stays healthy for a full season, the Nationals will surely count the season as a success.

Gio Gonzalez

Best Case: Gonzalez’s 2012 season was easily the best by a starting pitcher in the short history of the Washington Nationals — 21-8 with a 2.89 ERA in 199 innings, leading to a third-place finish in the NL Cy Young balloting.  While his performance regressed in his second year with the club, the peripheral numbers stayed largely constant — his walk rate stabilized, while his strikeout rate dropped only slightly (the biggest change was a spike in his home run rate, which nearly doubled from 2012 to 2013).  The best case scenario for Gonzalez would be a reprise of that 2012 season.

Worst Case: Gonzalez’s walk rate, which has sat around 3.5 BB/9 for the past two years, ticks up to around 4 per nine in 2014.  He regresses somewhat, posting an ERA somewhere in the mid-threes — still valuable, but not dominant by any stretch of the imagination.

Taylor Jordan

Best Case: Jordan firmly entrenches himself in the Nationals’ rotation with a powerhouse sophomore season.  His pinpoint control keeps the free passes to a minimum, while the slider that has so impressed scouts enable him to put away big league hitters.  His ERA hovers around 3.00, and alongside Fister, he gives the Nationals one of the most impressive 4-5 pitching duos in the league.

Worst Case: Before his stellar 2013 campaign, Jordan simply hadn’t been very good in his professional career — in 2012, he had posted a 5.13 ERA as a 23 year old splitting time between short-season A Auburn and low-A Hagerstown.  Jordan cannot seem to repeat his 2013 success, as he is hit hard in four big league starts, then gets sent back to AAA Syracuse, where he continues to struggle.

Tanner Roark

Best Case: Roark seemingly came out of nowhere to dominate the major leagues in 2013, posting a minuscule 1.51 ERA in 53.2 innings.  While that performance is clearly unsustainable (he gave up only one home run in that time, with a home run/fly ball rate that would have been the lowest in the major leagues had he qualified), he continues to succeed thanks to his low walk rate and high ground ball rate.  At age 27, Roark becomes a reliable major league starter, and a part of the Nationals’ future.

Worst Case: Roark’s 2013 turns out to be a fluke — once his home run rate and BABIP normalize, his ERA skyrockets, and Roark quickly finds himself falling out of favor with the Nationals’ brass.  When Doug Fister returns, it is Jordan, not Roark, who gets to keep his starting spot, with Roark heading back to Syracuse for a third straight season.

Rafael Soriano

Best Case: Soriano, who spent the offseason working on his slider, finds renewed effectiveness with his breaking pitch.  While the fastball is no longer what it was three years ago, Soriano can still use the pitch effectively thanks to the improvement in his off-speed.  He posts another 40 save season, and makes the Nationals give serious thought to exercising his club option for 2015.

Worst Case: Last year, Soriano posted the lowest strikeout rate since his rookie season, and with his fastball velocity declining steadily (down almost a mile and a half from two years ago), that does not figure to improve.  No longer armed with that blazing fastball, Soriano struggles to put away both hitters and games — each of his save opportunities are nail-biting marathon innings.  He loses the closer’s job in June, leaving the Nationals $28 million investment in him looking foolish.

Craig Stammen

Best Case: After a poor (at least by his standards) first half of the 2013 season, Stammen returned to dominance in the second half, holding the opposition to a .228 batting average and posting a 1.41 ERA from the All Star Break on.  Stammen picks up right where he left off the year before, striking out more than a batter an inning and using his heavy sinker to get weak contact when batters do connect (his ground ball rate was around 60% last year, the highest of his career).

Worst Case: Stammen, like Clippard, has been used heavily over the past two years, and the cumulative toll of back-to-back 80 relief inning seasons takes its toll.

Drew Storen

Best Case: Storen is the pitcher who returned from minor league assignment and allowed only 3 runs in 19.1 innings; he finally manages to erase the doubts about him that have lingered since Game 5 of the 2012 NLDS.

Worst Case: Storen is closer to the pitcher he was before that minor league assignment, when his ERA sat at 5.95 and he allowed opposing hitters to hit .295/.346/.486.  He is once again demoted to the minor leagues, and leaves tremendous doubt that he will be ever become the closer of the future he had been touted as.

Stephen Strasburg

Best Case: Strasburg finally has the breakout year that has been predicted of him since he was at San Diego State.  He strikes out 11 batters per nine, has an ERA under 2.5, and most importantly, cracks the 200 inning mark for the first time in his career.  He wins the first Cy Young Award of his career.

Worst Case: It seems the worst case scenario for Strasburg in 2014 (aside from a major injury) is a repeat of his 2013.  He misses time thanks to some minor injuries, and his numbers, while strong, are be no means transcendent.  The league is left wondering whether Strasburg will ever become the player he was expected to be.

Jordan Zimmermann

Best Case: Over the past three years, Zimmermann has posted a 2.58 ERA in the first half of the season; if extended over a full season, that would rank second in baseball, behind only Clayton Kershaw.  Zimmermann finally manages to find the same success in the second half as he has in the first, and he ends up as one of the top five pitchers in the National League.

Worst Case: Zimmermann is effective but hardly dominant in the first half of the season, and once again fades in the second half (his second-half ERA over the past three years is 4.33).  He goes another 200 innings this year, but with his ERA in the mid-threes, is more of an innings-eater than an ace.

HITTERS

Wilson Ramos

Best Case: Ramos manages to stay healthy, playing in over 120 games for the first time in his career. He also keeps on playing like he did from his return from the Disabled List on July 4th last season, when he hit .276 with 14 home runs and 53 RBIs in 62 games.

Worst Case: While running down the first base line, Wilson Ramos re-tears his hamstring, causing him to miss 60 games. He never really gets healthy, and his power numbers suffer because of it.

Jose Lobaton

Best Case: After Wilson Ramos goes down with an injury, Lobaton steps in and starts 80 games for the Nationals. Lobaton improves on his last season, hitting around .260-.265 with 10 home runs.

Worst Case: Wilson Ramos stays healthy throughout the year, giving Lobaton only 20-30 starts. The lack of playing time hurts Lobaton’s rhythm, causing him to hit below .200 as the back up.

Kevin Frandsen

Best Case: Frandsen returns to his 2012 form, hitting over .270 off the bench, with power. His success causes the Nationals to platoon him with Adam LaRoche at first base, starting Frandsen in games against tough lefties.

Worst Case: Frandsen hits under .220, and fails to replicate the pinch-hitting success he had last year. He is cut by the Nationals mid-June in favor of Tyler Moore.

Adam LaRoche

Best Case: Adam LaRoche shows that 2013 was a fluke, and while he can’t to replicate his incredible 2012 season, his batting average and slugging percentage return to their career norms. He also manages a .244/.300/.439 against left-handed pitching (his career averages), meaning he plays his way out of a platoon.

Worst Case: Age continues to take its toll on the 34 year old first baseman, and LaRoche’s numbers continue to decline. The Nationals have to remove him from the lineup against tough lefties. LaRoche’s struggles cause the Nationals to decline his option, leaving them without a solution at first base heading into 2015.

Danny Espinosa

Best Case: Anthony Rendon struggles out of the gate, causing the Nationals to start Espinosa more often. In the starting role,  Espinosa finally is able to hit consistantly from both sides of the plate and by midseason, Espinosa regains the role of starting second baseman. Espinosa cuts down on his strikeouts, while his power swing returns, and he hits 20 home runs for the second time in his career.

Worst Case: Espinosa’s 2013 was the worst possible scenario for him — he hit below the Mendoza Line, dealt with wrist injuries, and lost his starting job to Anthony Rendon, perhaps for good.  In 2014, the offensive struggles continue, and though his defense still draws rave reviews, the Nationals cannot continue to put his bat in the lineup.  They once again demote him to AAA, then end up trading him to the Astros.

Anthony Rendon

Best Case: Rendon improves on his strong rookie year; he raises his average over the .280 mark, and is finally able to find his power swing at the major league level, hitting 20+ home runs. He also gets more comfortable at second base in his second year, cutting his errors in half.

Worse Case: Rendon’s injury problems that let him slip to the 6th pick in the 2011 draft return, as Rendon has troubles staying on the field throughout the season. While Rendon is off the field, Espinosa takes over at second, and shows the Nationals why he should have been the starting second baseman all along. When Rendon finally gets healthy, he finds himself sitting on the bench behind Espinosa.

Ryan Zimmerman

Best Case: Zimmerman manages to stay fully healthy, avoiding the DL for the entire season for the first time since 2010. He comes out of the gate showing the power that he flashed last September, hitting 18 home runs by the All Star break. His throwing woes gone, he also improves defensively, allowing the Nationals to keep him at his natural position of third base for the forseeable future.

Worst Case: Zimmerman still cannot seem to shake the throwing problems that have dogged him for the past three years, committing a league-leading 18 throwing errors.  Worse yet, Zimmerman, a very streaky hitter, never seems to get truly hot, and finishes with an OPS under .800.  He ends up playing the majority of September at first base.

Ian Desmond

Best Case: Desmond builds on his recent success; he hits 28 home runs and steals 25 bases, becoming a member of the 20-20 club for the third straight season. He is able to stay on the field for the entire season, playing in more than 150 games. His success leads to his second all-star performance and his third silver slugger.

Worst Case: Desmond’s performance dipped in most major offensive categories from 2012 to 2013, and it continues to dip in 2014.  He plays in 145 games and hits .270/.310/.420 — good numbers for a shortstop, but hardly all-star caliber.  He begins to regret not signing the 7 year, $90 million deal the Nationals placed in front of him in the offseason.

Zach Walters

Best Case: Walters works on his defense in the minors, and thanks to Danny Espinosa’s struggles, finds himself in the majors by June.  Shifted into the utility infielder role, Walters shines, hitting 10 home runs in 250 at-bats.  He establishes himself as a talent worthy of a starting job in the major leagues.

Worst Case: Both Danny Espinosa and Anthony Rendon put together solid seasons, leaving no room for Walters in Washington until September.

Scott Hariston

Best Case: Hariston does what he was brought to D.C. to do; kill lefty pitchers off the bench. He slugs .500 against left-handed pitching (in line with his career average), getting some key hits off the bench, and even earns himself a couple of spot starts a week.

Worst Case: Hariston hits .177 in the first two months of the season, and it seems like the end of the road for the 11-year MLB veteran. Because of his struggles, the Nationals decide to cut ties with Hariston, releasing him mid-June.

Bryce Harper

Best Case: Bryce Harper proves that when he is healthy, he is the best player on the planet. He hits over .300 for the majority of the season, and finishes the season with over 40 home runs. His great season doesn’t just earn him an all-star game start and a silver slugger award, but it also wins him the NL MVP.

Worst Case: Held back by injuries and his struggles against lefties, Harper fails to make the jump from stardom to superstardom.  He plays in 120 games and hits .280 with 25 home runs — fantastic numbers for any other 21 year old, but they fail to live up to the lofty expectations the media has for Harper, and Harper has for himself.

Nate McLouth

Base Case: McLouth sees significant playing time, and makes the most of that playing time, hitting .260 with 10 home runs and ranking among the team leaders in stolen bases.

Worse Case: McLouth only sees the field as a pinch hitter, and doesn’t get much time in the field.  He regresses to something resembling the form he displayed in 2011 (when he hit .228/.344/.333), and the Nationals regret being stuck with him for the 2015 season.

Tyler Moore

Best Case: In the minors, Moore is able to find his groove, hitting over .300 with 15 home runs in the first two months of the season. After Hariston is released, Moore is called up to replace him on the bench.

Worse Case: Moore struggles in the minors, causing him to stay there until September.  The organization accepts that Moore is not a part of their long term plans, and looks outside the organization for Adam LaRoche’s replacement.

Denard Span

Best Case: Span is able to recreate his September performance (when he hit .316/.352/.412 in the teams last 29 games) over a full season. Under new manager Matt Williams’ tutelage, Span finally learns to be aggressive on the basepaths, swiping 40 bags for the first time in his career. He continues his impeccable play in center field, earning him his first career Gold Glove.

Worse Case: Span plays like he did for the majority of last season, forcing Matt Williams to move him to the eighth hole in the lineup. Because he can’t get on base, he can’t steal bases, ending up with only 15 on the season. Span’s platoon problems (he had a .539 OPS against lefties last year) continue, and by August, he no longer starts against left-handed pitching.

Jayson Werth

Best Case: Werth proves that 2013 was no fluke, hitting .310 with 26 home runs. Werth manages to stay healthy, playing in over 140 games for the first time since 2011.  On top of that, Werth makes the all-star team for only the second time in his career, and finishes top-20 in MVP vote for the fourth time.

Worse Case: Werth’s injuries continue, as a now 35 year old Werth plays in fewer than 130 games for the third straight year. He also returns from the spectacular heights of 2013 to his career averages, and hits a respectable-but-unspectacular .265/.355/.440 in the 2014 season. His 2014 play reignites the debate over the $126 million contract the Nationals gave him in 2011.

14 QUESTIONS for 2014

Who leads the team in wins? With how many?

Jacob Rasch: Stephen Strasburg, 19

Jonny Rasch: Gio Gonzalez, 18

Who are the Nationals’ All Star Representatives?

Jacob Rasch: Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Ian Desmond, Bryce Harper

Jonny Rasch: Gio Gonzalez, Ian Desmond, Ryan Zimmerman, Bryce Harper, Stephen Strasburg

Who leads the team in saves?  With how many?

Jacob Rasch: Rafael Soriano, 22 (replaced mid-season)

Jonny Rasch: Tyler Clippard, 15

When does Doug Fister return?

Jacob Rasch: April 26th vs. Padres

Jonny Rasch: April 30th @ Astros

Who will lead the team in Batting Average?

Jacob Rasch: Anthony Rendon, .308

Jonny Rasch: Jayson Werth, .314

How many games does Ryan Zimmerman play at first?

Jacob Rasch: 5 games

Jonny Rasch: 0 games

How many games does Wilson Ramos play at catcher?

Jacob Rasch: 110 games

Jonny Rasch: 125 games

Who will start more games at the end of the season: Taylor Jordan, Tanner Roark, or Ross Detwiler?

Jacob Rasch: Tanner Roark

Jonny Rasch: Taylor Jordan

How many innings does Stephen Strasburg throw?

Jacob Rasch: 210 innings

Jonny Rasch: 214.2 innings exactly

Where does Stephen Strasburg place in the Cy Young race?

Jacob Rasch: 3rd

Jonny Rasch: 5th

How many home runs does Bryce Harper hit? Does he lead the team?

Jacob Rasch: 36 home runs, yes

Jonny Rasch: 42 home runs, yes

Where does Bryce Harper place in the MVP?

Jacob Rasch: 5th

Jonny Rasch: 1st

How many games do the Nationals win?

Jacob Rasch: 93 games

Jonny Rasch: 95 games

When does the Nationals’ season end?

Jacob Rasch: NLCS in St. Louis

Jonny Rasch: World Series loss to Rays

2014 AL Preview

EAST

Can the Red Sox repeat their success from last year?

PROJECTED FINISH

1. Tampa Bay Rays (94-68)

2. Boston Red Sox (90-72)

3. Toronto Blue Jays (85-77)

4. New York Yankees (82-80)

5. Baltimore Orioles (79-83)

SLEEPER TEAM: Toronto Blue Jays

All five teams in the AL East have at least a reasonable chance at contention in what shapes up to be the most competitive division in baseball.  But of the five teams, the Blue Jays seem to be getting the least amount of buzz.  Projected to challenge for the division title last year after a very active offseason, the Jays instead slumped into last place with a 74-88 record, the only sub-.500 team in the division.  And this offseason, they added only catcher Dioner Navarro to the fold, returning essentially the same roster as the one that was so disappointing a year ago.  So why will they succeed in 2014?  Because they can’t possibly be as unlucky as they were in 2013.  As this handy chart (warning: language is NSFW) compiled by Reddit user atomicbolt displays, the Jays had more freak injuries than a bus crash at a carnival last year.  Assuming the team is healthy, the talent is there.  If Jose Bautista can play more than the 105 games he has averaged over the past two seasons, he will anchor a lineup that has as much firepower as any in the American League.  The rotation is a little shakier — behind R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle, the team will throw two injury risks — Dustin McGowan and Brandon Morrow — and a 23 year old prospect, Drew Hutchinson.  But if the Jays can miraculously stay at something resembling full strength throughout the season, they could finally live up to the expectations heaped on them before the 2013 season.

BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT: New York Yankees

Last year, despite scoring 21 fewer runs than they allowed, and despite frequently starting the likes of Eduardo Nunez, Chris Stewart, and Lyle Overbay, the New York Yankees managed to contend until the last week of the season, finishing with a record of 85-77.  And this offseason, they bought nearly every player available on the open market, spending a total of $491 million to acquire the likes of Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Masahiro Tanaka.  But despite the spending spree, the Yankees still have gaping holes in their infield — one talent evaluator called it “the worst in baseball.”  They’ve lost superstar second baseman Robinson Cano, their first baseman is coming off a major wrist injury, their best third baseman is suspended for the year, and their shortstop is 40 years old and on the doorstep of retirement.  The pitching staff has question marks as well — formerly reliable ace C.C. Sabathia is coming off his worst career season and has seen his velocity drop precipitously over the past three seasons.  The team is old everywhere (nobody in the starting lineup is under 30) , and simply doesn’t have the depth to weather the inevitable attrition that comes with the injuries of an aging team.  For the first time since the 1980s, a spending spree won’t be enough to fix what ails the New York Yankees.

WHY WILL THE RAYS WIN THE EAST?

It seems amazing that the Tampa Bay Rays could possibly be the favorites in a division that contains both the defending world champion Red Sox and the free-spending Yankees.  And yet, the Rays have compiled such an impressive amount of talent that it seems a fifth playoff appearance in seven years is not only possible, but likely.  The team’s stable of pitching depth is so impressive that the Rays could have traded away former Cy Young winner David Price in the offseason and still had one of the best rotations in the sport.  And unfortunately for the rest of the American League, they hung onto Price, who will headline a rotation that includes three other pitchers whose ERAs sat under 3.30 in 2013.  The lineup, led by Evan Longoria and James Loney at the corners, as well as Ben Zobrist and Desmond Jennings up the middle, is no slouch either.  They have a payroll that projects to be among the bottom five in the league, but the Rays have their best opportunity yet to prove that money isn’t everything.

CENTRAL

Can James Shields help make some magic happen for the Royals in 2014?

PROJECTED FINISH

1. Detroit Tigers (89-73)

2. Kansas City Royals (85-77)

3. Cleveland Indians (79-83)

4. Chicago White Sox (69-93)

5. Minnesota Twins (65-97)

SLEEPER TEAM: Kansas City Royals

This may be the best shot the Royals have towards breaking the playoff drought that has lasted since their only World Series title in 1985.  They have a bona fide ace in James Shields, a superstar talent in flamethrower Yordano Ventura, and a bullpen that last year was easily the best in the American League.  Offensively, the 2013 season saw Eric Hosmer break out at age 23, posting a .302/.353/.448 slash and 3.6 bWAR, and the Royals have another breakout candidate this year in 25 year old Mike Moustakas.  Elsewhere on the diamond, the Royals finally solved their long-standing second base problem by signing the reliable Omar Infante, and made a savvy pickup in outfielder Norichika Aoki.  Of course, the Dayton Moore-led front office also made a couple missteps this offseason, handing Jason Vargas a 4 year, $32 million contract and allowing Ervin Santana to escape while simultaneously re-signing Bruce Chen.  Thus, the back of the rotation is shaky, with Vargas and Chen joining the adequate but unspectacular Jeremy Guthrie.  Their pitching will likely regress, but the Royals have a real shot to usurp the Tigers and bring the AL Central crown back to Missouri for the first time.

BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT: Cleveland Indians

After 94 losses in 2012, the Indians shocked the baseball world in 2013 with a scalding second half that enabled them to win 92 games and a wild card berth.  They did so on the backs of an emerging superstar in Jason Kipnis, Carlos Santana, and Yan Gomes, as well unlikely resurgences from  key members of their pitching staff, Ubaldo Jimenez and Scott Kazmir.  Unfortunately for the Indians. Jimenez and Kazmir are gone, Jimenez heading to Baltimore and Kazmir to Oakland.  Gomes’ 2013, in which he hit .294/.345/.481 with 11 home runs in 88 games, might be sustainable (he hit a freakishly similar .287/.345/.484 in his 5-year minor league career), but it also might not.  And in order to accommodate Gomes, the Indians have moved the defense-challenged Santana to third base (a position he hasn’t played regularly in eight years), where he could either be a revelation or a tire fire.  The Indians have too many question marks, too many things that have to break that way. It’s impossible to feel confident predicting success for them, but don’t rule out another surprise season.BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT: Cleveland Indians

WHY WILL THE TIGERS WIN THE EAST?

The Tigers, even without Doug Fister, have one of the most formidable rotations in the major leagues.  Their rotation is so good that reigning Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer is the team’s number 2 starter, behind 2011 AL MVP/Cy Young winner Justin Verlander.  And Scherzer might not even be better than the team’s 3 starter, Anibal Sanchez, the 2013 AL ERA leader.  The lineup has more holes than it has in the past (especially at shortstop), but with reigning MVP Miguel Cabrera alongside Victor Martinez and Torii Hunter, the Tigers should hit enough to back up that outstanding pitching staff.

WEST

The addition of Prince Fielder may not be enough to slow the Rangers’ fall.

PROJECTED FINISH

1. Los Angeles Angels (92-70)

2. Oakland Athletics (89-73)

3. Texas Rangers (84-78)

4. Seattle Mariners (74-88)

5. Houston Astors (59-103)

SLEEPER TEAM: Los Angeles Angels

It’s a little hard to call that plays in Los Angeles and has some of the most notable stars in the sport a sleeper.  But after four years without a playoff berth, and two years of disappointment in the shadow of the Albert Pujols contract, it’s difficult to find a prognosticator who’s bullish on LA’s other team.  And for good reason — the Angels struggled mightily in the first half of 2013, finishing with a 79-83 overall record.  Albert Pujols, their highest-paid player played in only 99 games, and hit a career-low .259 with just 17 home runs.  Josh Hamilton, the superstar who hit 43 home runs the year before signing a 5 year, $125 million deal with LA, hit fewer than half that in his first year of the contract, with an on-base percentage that barely cracked .300.  So why be optimistic?  Because despite the struggles of Pujols and Hamilton last year, the two are still superstar talents primed for ascension back to their career norms.  And of course, the Angels have recent $144.5 millionare Mike Trout, unquestionably the greatest talent in the game right now.  Despite having a thin pitching staff that features C.J. Wilson, Jared Weaver, and not much else, the Angels still seem likely to be buoyed by their superstars to a strong finish in 2014.

 BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT: Texas Rangers

After the greatest five-year run in the history of the franchise, it seems the door is finally shutting on the Texas Rangers dynasty.  Last year, the team’s formerly prolific offense slid back to the middle of the pack, posting a .737 OPS, which ranked 8th in the league, and a 99 OPS+.  So the Rangers spent heavily this offseason to rectify this problem, signing free agent outfielder Shin-Soo Choo and taking on Prince Fielder’s contract in exchange for second baseman Ian Kinsler.  Choo is a solid addition, but the Fielder trade, which opened a spot on the infield for top prospect Jurrickson Profar, seems more a lateral move than a positive one — after all, Kinsler was second among Rangers’ position players with 4.5 bWAR last year.  Additionally, the pitching staff looks very thin behind Cy Young candidate Yu Darvish, who is injured and will not start Opening Day.  In his stead, the Rangers will give the Opening Day nod to Tanner Scheppers, the first player since Fernando Valenzuela in 1981 to make his first major league start in his team’s first game.  Behind Darvish, Scheppers and Martin Perez, the Rangers will go with Joe Saunders and Robbie Ross, neither of whom inspires confidence.  And frankly, neither do this year’s edition of the Rangers.

WHY WILL THE ANGELS WIN THE EAST?

The Angels are a team of superstars, and as previously mentioned, this might be the year that those superstars finally perform up to expectations.  Their division is weakened from previous years by injury and attrition, leaving the Angels a prime opportunity to finally reach the lofty heights owner Arte Moreno has spent heavily to reach.  Also, Mike Trout.

AL MVP: MIKE TROUT, LOS ANGELES ANGELS

AL CY YOUNG: JUSTIN VERLANDER, DETROIT TIGERS

AL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: YORDANO VENTURA, KANSAS CITY ROYALS

FIRST AL MANAGER FIRED: RON GARDENHIRE, MINNESOTA TWINS

AL WILD CARD GAME: RED SOX OVER ATHLETICS

AL DIVISION SERIES: RAYS OVER RED SOX, TIGERS OVER ANGELS

AL CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES: RAYS OVER TIGERS

WORLD SERIES: RAYS OVER CARDINALS